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The nexus of overnight trend and asset prices in China

Author

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  • Guo, Jiaqi
  • Han, Xing
  • Li, Kai
  • Li, Youwei

Abstract

Leveraging the systematic variations in investor clientele within a day, we validate an adapted version of the Hong and Stein (1999) model that addresses the consequences of slow information diffusion in China. The model predicts that overnight returns, rather than total returns, strongly forecast future returns, as informed overnight clientele underreact to value-relevant signals. Empirically, we establish a consistent overnight trend phenomenon: Firms with a strong overnight trend reliably outperform those with a weak overnight trend in the subsequent month. The phenomenon is more pronounced among stocks with higher levels of information asymmetry, valuation uncertainty, and relative mispricing. Furthermore, the overnight trend predicts positively firm fundamentals in the cross section.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Jiaqi & Han, Xing & Li, Kai & Li, Youwei, 2025. "The nexus of overnight trend and asset prices in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:170:y:2025:i:c:s0165188924001891
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104997
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overnight trend; Investor clientele; Momentum; Slow diffusion of information: Asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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