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Investor Psychology and Tests of Factor Pricing Models

Author

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  • Daniel, Kent

    (Northwestern U)

  • Hirshleifer, David

    (Ohio State U)

  • Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar

    (U of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

We provide a model with overconfident risk neutral investors, and therefore no risk premia, in which a price-based portfolio such as HML earns positive expected returns and loads on fundamental macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, loadings on such portfolios are proxies for mispricing and therefore forecast cross-sectional returns, even after controlling for characteristics such as book-to-market. Thus, an empirical finding that covariances incrementally predict returns does not distinguish rational factor pricing from a setting with no risk premia. The analysis reconciles the high risk (market betas) of low book-to-market firms with their low expected returns, and offers new empirical implications to distinguish alternative theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Investor Psychology and Tests of Factor Pricing Models," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2005-26
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    File URL: http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/dice/papers/2005/2005-26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.
    3. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Meena, Purushottam & Kumar, Gopal, 2022. "Online food delivery companies' performance and consumers expectations during Covid-19: An investigation using machine learning approach," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
    6. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    7. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Pricing deviation, misvaluation comovement, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5285-5299.
    8. Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
    9. Billett, Matthew T. & Jiang, Zhan & Rego, Lopo L., 2014. "Glamour brands and glamour stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 744-759.
    10. David Hirshleifer & Kewei Hou & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "The Accrual Anomaly: Risk or Mispricing?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 320-335, February.
    11. Jung, Chan Shik & Lee, Dong Wook & Park, Kyung Suh, 2009. "Can investor heterogeneity be used to explain the cross-section of average stock returns in emerging markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 648-670, June.
    12. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    13. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling, 2007. "Commonality in Misvaluation, Equity Financing, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 16134, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2009.
    14. Franke, Günter & Weber, Thomas, 2006. "Wieweit tragen rationale Modelle in der Finanzmarktforschung?," CoFE Discussion Papers 06/09, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    15. Gregory Nazaire & Maria Pacurar & Oumar Sy, 2020. "Betas versus characteristics: A practical perspective," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1385-1413, November.
    16. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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