IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The Accrual Anomaly: Risk or Mispricing?

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • David Hirshleifer

    ()

    (Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California 92697)

  • Kewei Hou

    ()

    (Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210)

  • Siew Hong Teoh

    ()

    (Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California 92697)

Abstract

We document considerable return comovement associated with accruals after controlling for other common factors. An accrual-based factor-mimicking portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.16, higher than that of the market factor or the SMB and HML factors of Fama and French. According to rational frictionless asset pricing models, the ability of accruals to predict returns should come from the loadings on this accrual factor-mimicking portfolio. However, our tests indicate that it is the accrual characteristic rather than the accrual factor loading that predicts returns. These findings suggest that investors misvalue the accrual characteristic and cast doubt on the rational risk explanation. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, Teck Ho, and Terrance Odean, special issue editors.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1289
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 58 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 320-335

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:2:p:320-335
Contact details of provider: Postal:
7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA

Phone: +1-443-757-3500
Fax: 443-757-3515
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords: capital markets; accruals; market efficiency; behavioral finance; limited attention;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
  • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
  2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  3. Kothari, S.P. & Loutskina, E. & Nikolaev, V., 2006. "Agency Theory of Overvalued Equity as an Explanation for the Accrual Anomaly," Discussion Paper 2006-103, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Guojin Gong & Henock Louis & Amy X. Sun, 2008. "Earnings Management and Firm Performance Following Open-Market Repurchases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 947-986, 04.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
  6. Kewei Hou & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2005. "Market Frictions, Price Delay, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 981-1020.
  7. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  8. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
  9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
  11. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
  12. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, 08.
  13. Patricia M. Dechow & Scott A. Richardson & Richard G. Sloan, 2008. "The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 537-566, 06.
  14. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
  15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  16. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
  17. Lamont, Owen & Polk, Christopher & Saa-Requejo, Jesus, 2001. "Financial Constraints and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 529-554.
  18. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
  19. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
  20. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh & Jeff Jiewei Yu, 2011. "Short Arbitrage, Return Asymmetry, and the Accrual Anomaly," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2429-2461.
  21. Siew Hong Teoh & T. J. Wong, 2002. "Why New Issues and High-Accrual Firms Underperform: The Role of Analysts' Credulity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 869-900.
  22. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
  23. Cohen, Randolph B. & Gompers, Paul A. & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2002. "Who underreacts to cash-flow news? evidence from trading between individuals and institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 409-462.
  24. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
  25. Jeremy C. Stein, 2009. "Presidential Address: Sophisticated Investors and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1517-1548, 08.
  26. Siew Hong Teoh & Ivo Welch & T.J. Wong, 1998. "Earnings Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1935-1974, December.
  27. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
  28. Daniel, Kent, 2004. "Discussion of: "Testing behavioral finance theories using trends and sequences in financial performance," (by Wesley Chan, Richard Frankel, and S.P. Kothari)," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 51-64, December.
  29. Konan Chan & Louis K. C. Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Josef Lakonishok, 2006. "Earnings Quality and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1041-1082, May.
  30. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1995. "Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 3-28, May.
  31. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  32. Ashiq Ali & Xuanjuan Chen & Tong Yao & Tong Yu, 2008. "Do Mutual Funds Profit from the Accruals Anomaly?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 1-26, 03.
  33. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
  34. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  35. Li, Dongmei & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does q-theory with investment frictions explain anomalies in the cross section of returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 297-314, November.
  36. Teoh, Siew Hong & Welch, Ivo & Wong, T. J., 1998. "Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 63-99, October.
  37. Jagannathan, Ravi & Kubota, Keiichi & Takehara, Hitoshi, 1998. "Relationship between Labor-Income Risk and Average Return: Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 319-347, July.
  38. Mashruwala, Christina & Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2006. "Why is the accrual anomaly not arbitraged away? The role of idiosyncratic risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 3-33, October.
  39. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
  40. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Investor Psychology and Tests of Factor Pricing Models," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  41. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R. & Verdi, Rodrigo, 2008. "Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 2-22, September.
  42. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, 04.
  43. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
  44. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
  45. Rangan, Srinivasan, 1998. "Earnings management and the performance of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-122, October.
  46. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Systematic noise," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 547-569, November.
  47. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  48. Ilia D. Dichev, 1998. "Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1131-1147, 06.
  49. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
  50. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean & Lu Zheng, 2005. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Effects of Expenses on Mutual Fund Flows," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2095-2120, November.
  51. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  52. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
  53. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2003. "An Analysis of Covariance Risk and Pricing Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 417-457.
  54. Collins, Daniel W. & Hribar, Paul, 2000. "Earnings-based and accrual-based market anomalies: one effect or two?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 101-123, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Mohanram, Partha & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2009. "Is PIN priced risk?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 226-243, June.
  2. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh & Jeff Jiewei Yu, 2011. "Short Arbitrage, Return Asymmetry, and the Accrual Anomaly," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2429-2461.
  3. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
  4. Martijn Cremers & Ankur Pareek, 2009. "Institutional Investors’ Investment Durations and Stock Return Anomalies: Momentum, Reversal, Accruals, Share Issuance and R&D Increases," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2662, Yale School of Management, revised 04 Sep 2009.
  5. Lect. Aurora Murgea Ph. D, 2010. "Classical Lassical And Behavioural Finance In Investor Decision," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2(38), pages 1-12, May.
  6. Wu, Yuliang & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2016. "Long-term industry reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 236-250.
  7. Bin Miao & Siew Hong Teoh & Zinan Zhu, 2016. "Limited attention, statement of cash flow disclosure, and the valuation of accruals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 473-515, June.
  8. Hsien-Li Lee & Hua Lee, 2015. "Effect of information disclosure and transparency ranking system on mispricing of accruals of Taiwanese firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 445-471, April.
  9. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2013. "The investment manifesto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 351-366.
  10. Xiaoji Lin & Lu Zhang, 2011. "Covariances versus Characteristics in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 17285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Houdou Basse Mama & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2017. "Investor Relations' Quality and Mispricing," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Defense, EconomiX.
  12. Huang, Lin & Wang, Zijun, 2014. "Is the investment factor a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities? The US and international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 219-232.
  13. Goto, Shingo & Xiao, Gang & Xu, Yan, 2015. "As told by the supplier: Trade credit and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 296-309.
  14. Javier Gómez Biscarri & Germán López Espinosa, 2008. "Fundamentals and the accruals puzzle," Faculty Working Papers 02/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  15. Cooper, Ilan & Priestley, Richard, 2016. "The expected returns and valuations of private and public firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 41-57.
  16. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yu, Jeff Jiewei, 2007. "Do short-sellers arbrtrage accrual-based return anomalies?," MPRA Paper 5510, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Oct 2007.
  17. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
  18. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R. & Verdi, Rodrigo, 2008. "Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 2-22, September.
  19. Doukakis, Leonidas C. & Papanastasopoulos, Georgios A., 2014. "The accrual anomaly in the U.K. stock market: Implications of growth and accounting distortions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 256-277.
  20. Simlai, Prodosh E., 2016. "Time-varying risk, mispricing attributes, and the accrual premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 150-161.
  21. Taylor, Daniel J. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 2015. "Delegated trade and the pricing of public and private information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 8-32.
  22. Iqbal Hussain, Hafezali & Mohd Farid, Shamsudin & Noor H, Jabarullah, 2016. "Non Linear Speed of Adjustment to Lead Leverage Levels and the Timing Element in Equity Issues: Empirical Evidence from the UK," MPRA Paper 79261, University Library of Munich, Germany.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:2:p:320-335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.