IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i3p1041-1082.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earnings Quality and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Konan Chan

    (University of Hong Kong and National Taiwan University)

  • Louis K. C. Chan

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh

    (Emory University)

  • Josef Lakonishok

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

An exclusive focus on bottom-line income misses important information contained in accruals (the difference between accounting earnings and cash flow) about the quality of earnings. Earnings increases that are accompanied by high accruals, suggesting low-quality earnings, are associated with poor future returns. We explore various hypotheses—earnings manipulation, extrapolative biases about future growth, and underreaction to changes in business conditions—to explain accruals' predictive power. Checks for robustness using within-industry comparisons and data on U.K. stocks are also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Konan Chan & Louis K. C. Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Josef Lakonishok, 2006. "Earnings Quality and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1041-1082, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:3:p:1041-1082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/500669
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
    2. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Ioannis Karatzas & Fridrik M. Baldursson, 1996. "Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 69-89.
    4. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    5. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
    6. Huntley Schaller & Fanny Demers & Michel Demers, 1993. "Investments Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Carleton Economic Papers 93-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 1990.
    7. Stephen Nickell, 1974. "On the Role of Expectations in the Pure Theory of Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19.
    8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    9. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    11. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2005. "Wicksellian theory of forest rotation under interest rate variability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 529-545, March.
    12. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier.
    13. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    14. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    15. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1998. "Irreversible investment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-37, March.
    16. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
    17. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
    19. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-475, June.
    20. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    21. Robert C. Merton, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 375-393.
    22. Nickell, Stephen J, 1974. "On Expectations, Government Policy and the Rate of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(163), pages 241-255, August.
    23. Anders ûksendal, 2000. "Irreversible investment problems," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 223-250.
    24. Baldwin, Carliss Y, 1982. " Optimal Sequential Investment When Capital Is Not Readily Reversible," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 763-782, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:3:p:1041-1082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.