IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibf/ijbfre/v10y2016i2p41-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rates: Evidence From The Middle East

Author

Listed:
  • Anwar Al-Gasaymeh
  • John Kasem

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of Purchasing Power Parity and investigates the market integration between Jordan and its major trading partners, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Unit root tests, Johansen co-integration test and a vector error correction model were employed to test data covering the period 2005Q1-2012Q4. The unit root tests demonstrated that all variables were integrated of order one. The results of co-integration tests showed that a co-integrating relationship existed between exchange rates, domestic and foreign price levels for four Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The two remaining countries, Oman and United Arab Emirates, do not have a cointegration relationship. For the vector error correction model, we found the error correction terms for Jordan with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries carried the expected sign. This suggests that whenever there is a deviation from the equilibrium co-integrating relationship, the exchange rate interacts in a dynamic fashion by adjusting to restore its long-run equilibrium. Finally, the models passed all the diagnostic checking. In conclusion, these results provide evidence that the Purchasing Power Parity model holds in the long run. The results also show the Jordanian economy is integrated with six trading countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Anwar Al-Gasaymeh & John Kasem, 2016. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rates: Evidence From The Middle East," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 10(2), pages 41-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:41-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.theibfr2.com/RePEc/ibf/ijbfre/ijbfr-v10n2-2016/IJBFR-V10N2-2016-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul G. J. O'Connell & Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. ""The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall": How Price Differences Across U.S. Cities Are Arbitraged," NBER Working Papers 6089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Phylaktis, Kate & Kassimatis, Yiannis, 1994. "Does the real exchange rate follow a random walk? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 476-495, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Haskel & Holger Wolf, 2001. "The Law of One Price—A Case Study," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(4), pages 545-558, December.
    2. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    3. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
    4. Michael J. Dueker & Apostolos Serletis, 2000. "Do real exchange rates have autoregressive unit roots? a test under the alternative of long memory and breaks," Working Papers 2000-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Sundar, Cuddalore & Varela, Oscar & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1997. "Black market and official exchange rates, cointegration and purchasing power parity in developing Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    6. Beck, Günter W., 2003. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and relative price dispersion: On the importance of nominal exchange rate volatility for the width of the border," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/45, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part III: The Explosion of Purchasing Power Parity," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Lee Chin & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & M. Azali, 2009. "Tests of different monetary aggregates for the monetary models of the exchange rate in five ASEAN countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(14), pages 1771-1783.
    9. David Parsley Shang-Jin Wei, 2002. "Currency Arrangements And Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach," International Finance 0211004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ping Wang & Paul Dunne, 2000. "Sources of movements in real exchange rates-evidence from east Asian economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 158-170, March.
    11. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
    13. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    14. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(2), pages 302-313, October.
    15. Valerie Mignon & Gilles Dufrenot & Slim Chaouachi, 2004. "Modelling the misalignments of the Dollar-Sterling real exchange rate: A nonlinear cointegration perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(19), pages 1-11.
    16. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2007. "On the relationship between nominal exchange rates and domestic and foreign prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-117.
    17. Wei, Shang-Jin & Parsley, David, 2001. "Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: a Price-Based Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. repec:lan:wpaper:2608 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin & Kirsten Lommatzsch & JiÅí SlaÄálek & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2008. "Price Convergence in an Enlarged Internal Market," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 57-68, September.
    20. GUO, Qian, 2010. "The Balassa-Samuelson model of purchasing power parity and Chinese exchange rates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 334-345, June.
    21. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; Johansen Co-Integration; Vector Error Correction Model; Jordan and Gulf Cooperation Council;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:41-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mercedes Jalbert The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Mercedes Jalbert to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.