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Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Stein, Jerome L.

    (Emeritus Professor of Economics, Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University)

Abstract

This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth and current account balances, in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control the author derives benchmarks for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both the return on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate - the "natural real exchange rate" NATREX - is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions. * What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis? * What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess" debt that increases the probability of or a debt crisis? * What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate? The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises and debt crises in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Stein, Jerome L., 2006. "Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199280575.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780199280575
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:annopr:v:247:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-015-2052-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cécile Couharde & Serge Rey & Audrey Sallenave, 2016. "External debt and real exchange rates’ adjustment in the euro area: new evidence from a nonlinear NATREX model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 966-986, March.
    3. Haluk Yener & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2017. "Analysis of the seeds of the debt crisis in Europe," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1589-1610, December.
    4. Stein, Jerome L., 2007. "United States current account deficits: A stochastic optimal control analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1321-1350, May.
    5. Jerome L. Stein, 2009. "Application of Stochastic Optimal Control to Financial Market Debt Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 2539, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Haluk Yener & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2015. "Survival Maximizing Leverage of an Economy: The Case of Greece," Working Paper series 15-17, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Jerome L. Stein, 2011. "The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(4), pages 44-51, December.
    8. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2013. "Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 259-303, Décembre.
    9. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:27-:d:102204 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Karlhans Sauernheimer, 2011. "Greece: Bail-out Packages, Current Account and Foreign Debt," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(4), pages 37-43, December.
    11. Stein, Jerome L., 2010. "A tale of two debt crises: a stochastic optimal control analysis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-24.
    12. repec:eee:streco:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:29-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cheng, Mei-luan & Gloy, Brent A., 2008. "The Paradox of Risk Balancing: Do Risk-reducing Policies Lead to More Risk for Farmers?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6546, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the Complementarity of Equilibrium Exchange-Rate Approaches," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 618-632, September.
    16. Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "Optimal Debt And Endogenous Growth In Models Of International Finance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 389-413, December.
    17. Jerome L. Stein, 2010. "A Critique of the Literature on the US Financial Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2924, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Rey, Serge, 2009. "L’apport du NATREX à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(2), pages 131-181, juin.
    19. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
    20. Haluk Yener & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2014. "Analysis of The Seeds of Debt Crisis in Europe," Working Paper series 24_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    21. Serge REY & Cécile COUHARDE & Audrey SALLENAVE, 2015. "External debt and real exchange rates’ adjustment in the euro area: New evidence from a non linear NATREX model," Working Papers 2015-2016_1, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Sep 2015.

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