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What determines European real exchange rates?

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  • Berka, Martin
  • Devereux, Michael B.

Abstract

We study a newly constructed panel data set of relative prices for a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries over a 15 year period. The data set includes eurozone members both before and after the inception of the euro, floating exchange rate countries of western Europe, and emerging market economies of Eastern and Southern Europe. We find that there is a substantial and continuing deviation from PPP at all levels of aggregation, both for traded and non-traded goods, even among eurozone members. Real exchange rates exhibit two clear properties in the sample; a) they are closely tied to GDP per capita relative to the European average, at all levels of aggregation and for both cross country time series variation, b) they are highly positively correlated with cross country and time series variation in the relative price of non-traded goods. We then construct a simple two-sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination which exhibits these two properties, calibrated to match the data. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most countries, there is a very close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Berka, Martin & Devereux, Michael B., 2011. "What determines European real exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 18598, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:18598
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    3. Arshian Sharif, Sahar Afshan, 2016. "Tourism Development and Real Effective Exchange Rate Revisited by Wavelet based Analysis: Evidence from France," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 101-118, October.
    4. Zvi Eckstein & Amit Friedman, 2011. "The equilibrium real exchange rate for Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 201-213, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    6. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 179-185, May.
    7. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    8. Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "From the Stability Pact to ESM - What Next?," Chapters, in: Andreas Dombret & Otto Lucius (ed.), Stability of the Financial System, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Naohisa Hirakata & Yuto Iwasaki & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Emerging Economies’ Supply Shocks and Japan’s Price Deflation : International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23970, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Rudolfs Bems & Julian di Giovanni, 2016. "Income-Induced Expenditure Switching," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3898-3931, December.
    11. Oscar Afonso & Manuela Magalhães, 2021. "The role of intellectual property rights in a directed technical change model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2142-2176, April.
    12. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
    13. Karine Gente & Carine Nourry, 2011. "Integration, real exchange rate and growth," Working Papers halshs-00643043, HAL.
    14. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428, June.
    15. Syed Ali Raza & Sahar Afshan, 2017. "Determinants of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Revisited with Structural Break Testing," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 825-848, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; GDP; European countries; relative prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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