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Some Evidence on Mean Reversion in ex ante Real Interest Rates

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  • Moosa, Imad A
  • Bhatti, Razzaque H

Abstract

Ex ante real interest rates and their differentials are tested for mean reversion using quarterly data on three-month treasury bill rates and consumer prices for twelve major industrial countries over the period 1972:1-1993:3. The results are strongly supportive of mean reversion, particularly when less conventional tests are employed. The conclusion that can be derived from the empirical evidence is that goods, capital, and foreign exchange markets have become highly integrated in the countries under consideration. Copyright 1996 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Moosa, Imad A & Bhatti, Razzaque H, 1996. "Some Evidence on Mean Reversion in ex ante Real Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 177-191, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:43:y:1996:i:2:p:177-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2004. "Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-405.
    2. Dreger, Christian, 2010. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 274-285.
    3. Mark J. Holmes & Ping Wang, 2008. "Real Convergence and the EU Accession Countries," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 215-236, December.
    4. Colin Allitt & Imad Moosa, 1998. "Consumption patterns as a measure of capital mobility: evidence from some APEC countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 885-891.
    5. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1996. "A Correct Test of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 671-682.
    6. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2006. "Are international real interest rate linkages characterized by asymmetric adjustments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 384-396, October.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2010. "Does Real Interest Rate Parity Hold For Oecd Countries? New Evidence Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Cross‐Section Dependence And Structural Breaks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 568-590, November.
    8. Mark J. Holmes, 2005. "Integration or Independence? An Alternative Assessment of Real Interest Rate Linkages in the European Union," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(3), pages 407-427, November.
    9. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion‐I‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2009. "Testing For Real Interest Rate Parity Using Panel Stationarity Tests With Dependence: A Note," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 112-126, January.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2008. "Is there a connection between monetary unification and real economic integration? Evidence from regime-switching stationarity tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 958-970, October.
    11. Shaista Alam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt & Azhar Iqbal, 2001. "The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 577-602.
    12. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
    13. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    14. Mark J. Holmes & Ping Wang, 2008. "Real Convergence and Regime-Switching Among EU Accession Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 6(1), pages 9-27.
    15. Spahr, Ronald W. & Schwebach, Robert G., 1998. "Comparing Mean Reverting Versus Pure Diffusion Interest Rate Processes in Valuing Postponement Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 579-598.
    16. Tolga Omay & Ayşegül Çorakcı & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2017. "Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 283-307, February.

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