IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v29y2012i2p262-270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from EU members

Author

Listed:
  • Ketenci, Natalya

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the level of capital mobility in European Union members using the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) in order to investigate relations between saving and investment flows. In this paper, data for 23 European countries were used over the period of 1995–2009 on the quarterly basis. Two different tests were used to estimate the stationarity of the model variables, which are the Ng and Perron (2001) unit root test procedure and approach proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992) for unit root test allowing for a structural shift. Then the Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) structural break test was applied to determine the presence of structural breaks in series. In most countries except Belgium and Finland UDmax and WDmax tests rejected the hypothesis of no breaks. To test the cointegration relationships between investment and saving flows of European Union members three different cointegration techniques were applied to the data. Firstly, the Johansen (1988) cointegration approach was used for the case of no cointegration shifts, then the Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration test was applied, which allows for one structural shift. Finally, again the Johansen' cointegration approach was used; however, this time with the inclusion of dummy variables related to earlier selected structural break locations. The empirical results provided stronger evidence of cointegration between investment and saving variables in the case of structural break accommodation compared to the case where the presence of structural breaks was ignored. The estimated saving retention coefficient in the presence of structural breaks using the Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) approach appeared relatively low in many cases, illustrating by this the openness of estimated countries. In general, world and European countries with time have a tendency to a higher level of their capital market openness. Estimations of a saving retention coefficient in the presence of structural changes do not support the existence of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle in the considered EU countries, except Belgium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ketenci, Natalya, 2012. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from EU members," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 262-270.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:262-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311002318
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sinha, Tapen & Sinha, Dipendra, 2004. "The mother of all puzzles would not go away," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 259-267, February.
    2. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida, 1997. "Cointegration of long span saving and investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-6, January.
    3. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Claudia Buch, 1999. "Capital mobility and EU enlargement," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(4), pages 629-656, December.
    6. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    7. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    8. Armstrong, Harvey W. & Balasubramanyam, V. N. & Salisu, Mohammed A., 1996. "Domestic savings, intra-national and intra-European Union capital flows, 1971-1991," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1229-1235, June.
    9. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    10. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    11. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    12. Ho, Tsung-Wu, 2003. "The saving-retention coefficient and country-size: The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle reconsidered," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 387-396, September.
    13. Herwartz, H. & Xu, F., 2010. "A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-54, February.
    14. De Vita, Glauco & Abbott, Andrew, 2002. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 293-299, October.
    15. Andrés González & Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Yukai Yang, 1910. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," CREATES Research Papers 2017-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2011. "A Time‐series Approach to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 473-485, March.
    17. Sachsida, Adolfo & Caetano, Marcelo Abi-Ramia, 2000. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 85-88, July.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    19. Anastasios Mastroyiannis, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and the Feldstein and Horioka Puzzle: the Case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 91-99, June.
    20. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    21. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-627, May.
    22. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    23. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    24. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    25. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    26. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    27. Pelagidis, Theodore & Mastroyiannis, Tasos, 2003. "The saving-investment correlation in Greece, 1960-1997: implications for capital mobility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 609-616, September.
    28. Hussein, Khaled A., 1998. "International capital mobility in OECD countries: The Feldstein-Horioka 'puzzle' revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 237-242, May.
    29. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 1997. "The relationship between saving and finance: theory and evidence from E.U. countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 333-358, December.
    30. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-1170, September.
    31. Ozmen, Erdal & Parmaksiz, Kagan, 2003. "Policy regime change and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the UK evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-149, February.
    32. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    33. Kejriwal Mohitosh, 2008. "Cointegration with Structural Breaks: An Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-39, March.
    34. Golub, Stephen S., 1990. "International capital mobility: net versus gross stocks and flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 424-439, December.
    35. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    36. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
    37. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 1998. "The saving-investment correlation revisited: the case of Spain, 1964-1994," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(12), pages 769-772.
    39. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    40. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    41. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pittis, Nikitas, 2005. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1143-1149, November.
    42. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    43. Kollias, Christos & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle across EU members: Evidence from the ARDL bounds approach and panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 380-387.
    44. Ho, Tsung-wu, 2002. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 555-564, August.
    45. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    46. Nell, Kevin S. & Santos, Luis Delfim, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis versus the long-run solvency constraint model: A critical assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 66-70, January.
    47. Argimon, Isabel & Roldan, JoseMaria, 1994. "Saving, investment and international capital mobility in EC countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 59-67, January.
    48. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    49. Jos Jansen, W, 1996. "Estimating saving-investment correlations: evidence for OECD countries based on an error correction model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 749-781, October.
    50. Corbin, Annie, 2001. "Country specific effect in the Feldstein-Horioka paradox: a panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 297-302, September.
    51. Dick van Dijk & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2005. "A multi-level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 811-827.
    52. Anindya Banerjee & Paolo Zanghieri, 2003. "A New Look at the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle using an Integrated Panel," Working Papers 2003-22, CEPII research center.
    53. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    54. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Bolatoglu, Nasip, 2007. "A regime switching approach to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: Evidence from some European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 523-533.
    55. Andrew J. Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2003. "Another Piece in the Feldstein--Horioka Puzzle," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 69-89, February.
    56. N. Vasudeva Murthy, 2009. "The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Latin American and Caribbean countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 176-188, April.
    57. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
    58. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-188, April.
    59. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dilem Yıldırım & Ethem Erdem Orman, 2016. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from China," ERC Working Papers 1601, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2016.
    2. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    3. Natalya Ketenci, 2015. "Capital mobility in the panel GMM framework: Evidence from EU members," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 12(1), pages 3-19, July.
    4. Ma, Wei & Li, Haiqi, 2016. "Time-varying saving–investment relationship and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 166-178.
    5. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:1:p:139-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mehmet MERCAN, 2014. "Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Sinanmasi: Yatay Kesit Bagimliligi Altinda Yapisal Kirilmali Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 231-245.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2015. "Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with regime switching: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 260-269.
    8. repec:spr:inrvec:v:64:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s12232-017-0272-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:150-159 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    11. Ekrem ERDEM & Ahmet KOSEOGLU & Ali Gokhan YUCEL, 2016. "Testing the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: New evidence from structural breaks for Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 17-26, Summer.
    12. Ketenci, Natalya, 2014. "The Feldstein –Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from the largest countries of Asia," MPRA Paper 54660, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Feldstein–Horioka puzzle; Saving–investment association; Capital mobility; Cointegration; Structural breaks; EU;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:2:p:262-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.