Resilience of Indian agriculture to external shocks: Analyzing through a structural econometric model
Is Indian agriculture resilient to external shocks? This question has assumed considerable importance ever since macroeconomic reforms were implemented from the early nineties. As a result, the agricultural sector was exposed to sudden disturbances caused not just by the demand and supply conditions within the country, but also by volatility in world market price, exchange rate and surge in imports. This paper aims to evaluate the magnitude of sensitivity of agriculture to these factors and other changes, and explores policy options that may neutralize their adverse effects, maintain price incentives and stability. The analysis is based on three important tradable commodities. A structural econometric model is applied to each, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980-81 to 2002-03. Broad findings reveal agriculture to be increasingly driven by an incentive structure based on its linkages with world market price, exchange rate and other factors. Counterfactual simulation experiments indicate that due to trade and price policies, commodity prices and output tend to be much more resilient to various shocks compared to the exports and imports.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 2, 06120 Halle(Saale)|
Phone: (+49) (0) 345 / 29 28 0
Fax: (+49) (0) 345 / 29 28 199
Web page: http://www.iamo.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Freebairn, John, 2002. "The macroeconomics of agriculture," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 28, pages 1455-1485 Elsevier.
- G. Edward Schuh, 1974. "The Exchange Rate and U. S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-13.
- Seema Bathla, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms and Openness of Indian Agriculture," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 7(1), pages 19-53, March.
- Lassaad Lachaal & Abner W. Womack, 1998. "Impacts of Trade and Macroeconomic Linkages on Canadian Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(3), pages 534-542.
- MB Kaabia & JM Gil, 2000. "Short- and long-run effects of macroeconomic variables on the Spanish agricultural sector," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 449-471, December.
- Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1998. "Agriculture and the macroeconomy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1967, The World Bank.
- NR, Bhanumurthy & Kumawat, Lokendra, 2009. "External Shocks and the Indian Economy: Analyzing through a Small, Structural Quarterly Macroeconometric Model," MPRA Paper 19776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iamo11:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.