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Political Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization

When the choice of the nominal anchor and timing of inflation stabilization is analyzed with models of political business cycles, there is room for political opportunism of policymakers. The different business cycles associated with exchange rate-based (ERBS) and money-based stabilizations (MBS) imply that the decision regarding the timing and nominal anchor of stabilization may be affected by the timing of elections. Namely, an opportunistic policymaker is more likely to implement an ERBS than a MBS before elections, while the opposite happens after elections. Empirical results obtained when estimating a multinomial logit model for a sample of 35 stabilization programs implemented in chronic inflation countries clearly support this hypothesis.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2002/NIPE_WP_9_2002.PDF
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 9/2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:9/2002
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  1. A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; Acritical Look At the Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/132, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 02/197, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ari Aisen, 2004. "Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; Is there Space for Political Opportunism?," IMF Working Papers 04/94, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Alberto Alesina & Alex Cukierman, 1987. "The Politics of Ambiguity," NBER Working Papers 2468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  9. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  10. David M. Gould, 1999. "Does the choice of nominal anchor matter?," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0499, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  11. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1995. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6857, Inter-American Development Bank.
  12. Rogoff, Kenneth & Sibert, Anne, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, January.
  13. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Liviatan, Nissan, 1988. "Inflationary rigidities and stabilization policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4, The World Bank.
  14. Harrington, Joseph E, Jr, 1993. "Economic Policy, Economic Performance, and Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 27-42, March.
  15. Francisco José Veiga, 2000. "Delays of Inflation Stabilizations," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 275-295, November.
  16. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  17. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
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