The Political Economy of Failed Stabilization
This paper is an empirical analysis of the likelihood of failure of inflation stabilization programs. Logit models are estimated on a dataset of 39 programs implemented in 10 countries since the late 1950s, in order to determine which economic and political variables affect the probability of failure of stabilizations. Besides the well-known effects of real exchange rate appreciation, decreasing foreign reserves, budget deficits and slower GDP growth, I find that political instability, party fractionalization, less pluralism or democracy (greater autocracy), longer time in office and leftist incumbents also increase the probability of failure of inflation stabilization plans.
|Date of creation:||2003|
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- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999.
"Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614
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- Alex Cukierman & Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," NBER Working Papers 3199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1994. "Inflation Stabilization And Nominal Anchors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, 04.
- Kiguel, Miguel A. & Liviatan, Nissan, 1988. "Inflationary rigidities and stabilization policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4, The World Bank. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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