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Promises Made, Promises Broken: A Model Of Imf Program Implementation

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  • JOSEPH P. JOYCE

Abstract

This paper presents a model of the implementation of IMF programs, which is empirically tested with data from the period 1975-1999. The IMF and the borrowing country are shown to have asymmetric evaluations of a program's discounted benefits, due to differences in the measurement of the benefits, the relevant time frame and appropriate discount rate. The model also distinguishes between a government that seeks to maximize national welfare and an autocracy that seeks only to benefit the ruling group. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that program implementation is affected by a country's trade openness, the ideological cohesion of the government, the duration of the political regime, and the degree of political openness. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph P. Joyce, 2006. "Promises Made, Promises Broken: A Model Of Imf Program Implementation," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 339-365, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:18:y:2006:i:3:p:339-365
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "IMF Lending in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis," Development Working Papers 305, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    2. Adam, Antonis & Delis, Manthos D. & Kammas, Pantelis, 2011. "Are democratic governments more efficient?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 75-86, March.
    3. Axel Dreher, 2009. "IMF conditionality: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 233-267, October.
    4. Marchesi, Silvia & Sabani, Laura, 2007. "IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: Theory and empirics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 640-666, November.
    5. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2011. "How soon is now? The effects of the IMF on economic reforms in Latin America," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 189-213, July.
    6. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
    7. Ozlem Arpac & Graham Bird, 2009. "Turkey and the IMF: A case study in the political economy of policy implementation," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 135-157, June.
    8. Jeanne, Olivier & Ostry, Jonathan D & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality," CEPR Discussion Papers 7022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, Lars & Douhan, Robin, 2014. "Entrepreneurship policy and globalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 22-38.
    10. Suominen Kati, 2010. "Insuring Against Instability: United States and the Future of the International Monetary Fund," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.
    12. Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Arpac, Ozlem & Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex, 2008. "Stop Interrupting: An Empirical Analysis of the Implementation of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1493-1513, September.
    14. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Philippe Dulbecco, 2007. "The institutional failures of International Monetary Fund conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 309-327, December.
    15. Graham Bird, 2003. "The Implementation of IMF Programmes: A Conceptual Framework and a Policy Agenda," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1003, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    16. Graham Bird, 2008. "The implementation of IMF programs: A conceptual framework," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 41-64, March.
    17. Douhan, Robin & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, Lars, 2009. "Entrepreneurial Innovations, Entrepreneurship Policy and Globalization," Working Paper Series 807, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 23 Jul 2013.
    18. Parisa SAMIMI & Guan Choo LIM & Abdul Aziz BUANG, 2011. "Globalization Measurement: Notes on Common Globalization Indexes," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 1(7), pages 1-20, December.

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