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Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Chamon

    (IMF)

  • Francisco Roldán

    (IMF)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of uncertainty about the nature of output costs of sovereign default on debt tolerance. While the theoretical literature assumes output losses lasting until market access is restored, the empirical evidence points to persistent effects, and output may not return to its pre-default trend. We include such uncertainty in a model of sovereign default and find that it can significantly boost equilibrium debt levels. We also consider a government which is averse to this type of uncertainty and seeks robust decision rules. We calibrate the model to match evidence on the output trajectory around debt restructuring episodes and infer output costs of about the size found in the empirical literature, alongside significant uncertainty about their permanence and a strong desire for robustness. Uncertainty and robustness contribute about a quarter of observed debt tolerance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Chamon & Francisco Roldán, 2025. "Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(1), pages 118-149, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:73:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-024-00260-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-024-00260-z
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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