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Indexed Sovereign Debt: An Applied Framework

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  • Guido Sandleris
  • Horacio Sapriza
  • Filippo Taddei

Abstract

In recent years, some countries have issued sovereign bonds indexed to real variables such as GDP. Moreover, there has been discussions about this issue during the European crisis. This paper analyzes the effects of introducing this type of contracts in a standard DSGE model with sovereign default risk. We solved the model numerically calibrating it to the Argentine economy and show that the introduction of GDP-indexed sovereign debt contracts reduces the probability of default and makes the government willing to hold non-contingent assets and issue real-indexed bonds at the same time. The magnitude of the welfare effect that this type of instruments could generate is equivalent to an increase of approximately half a percentage point per year in certainty equivalent aggregate consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Sandleris & Horacio Sapriza & Filippo Taddei, 2008. "Indexed Sovereign Debt: An Applied Framework," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 104, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:104
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. César Sosa-Padilla & Federico Sturzenegger, 2021. "Does It Matter How Central Banks Accumulate Reserves? Evidence from Sovereign Spreads," NBER Working Papers 28973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe & Leal, Julio & Martinez Fritscher, Andre, 2019. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 304-323.
    4. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    6. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
    7. Patricia Gómez-González, 2015. "Financial innovation in sovereign borrowing and public provision of liquidity," Working Papers 1511, Banco de España.
    8. repec:udt:wpbsdt:nombre_del_archivo is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "On the benefits of GDP-indexed government debt: lessons from a model of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 98(2Q), pages 139-157.
    10. Guido Sandleris & Mark J.L Wright, 2013. "GDP-Indexed Bonds: A Tool to Reduce Macroeconomic Risk?," Business School Working Papers 2013-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    11. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa-Padilla & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "Debt dilution, overborrowing, and sovereign default risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan & Johannes Holler & Ulrich Bindseil & Nicolas Sauter & Hans J. Blommestein & Maria Cannata & Juha Kilponen & Alessandro Missale & Ewald Nowotny & Guido Sandleris & Mark L., 2013. "The Future of Sovereign Borrowing in Europe," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2013/5 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan & Johannes Holler, December.
    13. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    14. Barr, David & Bush, Oliver & Pienkowski, Alex, 2014. "GDP-linked bonds and sovereign default," Bank of England working papers 484, Bank of England.

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    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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