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Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Author

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  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Reinhart, Vincent
  • Trebesch, Christoph

Abstract

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.
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Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Trebesch, Christoph, 2016. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015," Munich Reprints in Economics 43461, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:43461
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    8. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2014. "A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief," NBER Working Papers 20577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Amélia Branco & Nuno Valério & Rita Martins de Sousa, 2012. "Echoes from the Past: Portuguese Stabilizations of the 1890S and 1920S," Working Papers GHES - Office of Economic and Social History 2012/47, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, GHES - Social and Economic History Research Unit, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 215-251.
    14. repec:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:80-114. is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Pablo Vega-García, 2016. "Systemic And Idiosyncratic Sovereign Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 80-114, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 18/153, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Kiel Working Papers 2122, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Gurgu, Elena & Zorzoliu, Raluca, 2016. "Romania’S Main Role In The Current Global Economic Context," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 16(3), pages 19-36.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2019. "Financial crises: past and future," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 3-15, January.
    6. Jochen Andritzky & Désirée I. Christofzik & Lars P. Feld & Uwe Scheuering, 2019. "A mechanism to regulate sovereign debt restructuring in the euro area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 20-34, May.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 3-28, Summer.
    8. Flavia Corneli, 2018. "Sovereign debt maturity structure and its costs," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1196, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Sergio Urzua & Felipe Saffie & Felipe Benguria, 2017. "Demand Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics: Firm Level Responses to a Commodity Boom," 2017 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Jalali Naini, Ahmad Reza & Naderian, Mohammad Amin, 2017. "Financial Vulnerability and Stabilization Policy in Commodity Exporting Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 84481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:eee:exehis:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:150-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 016362, Universidad EAFIT.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Rui Esteves & Kris James Mitchener, 2019. "Public Debt Through the Ages," NBER Working Papers 25494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Peter H. Bent, 2018. "Recovery from Financial Crises in Peripheral Economies, 1870-1913," CEH Discussion Papers 07, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    15. Swarnali A Hannan, 2018. "Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature," IMF Working Papers 18/214, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Elena GURGU & Raluca Ileana ZORZOLIU, 2016. "Romania's Role in the Current International Economic Context through Domestic Macroeconomic Developments," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 3(1), pages 37-44, October.
    18. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Rodrigo da Silva Souza, 2018. "Chinese resource demand or commodity price shocks: Macroeconomic effects for an emerging market economy," CAMA Working Papers 2018-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Sergio Urzúa, 2018. "The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles," NBER Working Papers 24560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gurgu, Elena & COCIUBAN, Aristide, 2016. "Romania’S Implication In The Global Financial Cycle," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 16(3), pages 37-51.
    21. Guilherme Klein Martins & Fernando Rugitsky, 2018. "The commodities boom and the profit squeeze: output and profit cycles in Brazil (1996-2016)," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_09, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    22. Stefan Avdjiev & Stephan Binder & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," BIS Working Papers 627, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. repec:eee:finsta:v:39:y:2018:i:c:p:237-258 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Elena GURGU & Aristide COCIUBAN, 2016. "Global Financial Cycle and International Production Networks. International Investment Position of Romania through its Main Ingredients," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 3(1), pages 97-105, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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