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Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Author

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  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Reinhart, Vincent
  • Trebesch, Christoph

Abstract

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.
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Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Trebesch, Christoph, 2016. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015," Munich Reprints in Economics 43461, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:43461
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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