Bargaining Over Taxes And Entitlements In The Era Of Unequal Growth

Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political‐economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: “unequal growth,” where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low‐income earners through a “status quo effect.” In a model calibrated to the United States, we show that sustained bargaining power by a party representing the poor results in a rising share of entitlements consistent with the data.