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The 2012 Eurozone Crisis and the ECB’s OMT Program: A Debt-Overhang Banking and Sovereign Crisis Interpretation The 2012 Eurozone Crisis and the ECB’s OMT Program: A Debt-Overhang Banking and Sovereign Crisis Interpretation

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  • Filippo Occhino

Abstract

This paper develops a model to interpret the 2012 eurozone crisis and the ECB?s policy response. In the model, bank lending is distorted by debt overhang, banks hold sovereign bonds, and the government guarantees the bailout of bank creditors. A self-fulfilling pessimistic view of the economy can trigger a banking and sovereign crisis: with pessimistic economic expectations, the value of sovereign bonds declines, the bank risk of default rises, and the debt overhang distortion worsens; this leads to a contraction in bank lending and to a decline in economic activity, which confi rms the initial pessimistic expectations. A commitment by the central bank to purchase the sovereign bonds at pre-crisis market spreads manages to eliminate the crisis equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Occhino, 2015. "The 2012 Eurozone Crisis and the ECB’s OMT Program: A Debt-Overhang Banking and Sovereign Crisis Interpretation The 2012 Eurozone Crisis and the ECB’s OMT Program: A Debt-Overhang Banking and Sovereig," Working Papers (Old Series) 1509, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1509
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Philippon & Philipp Schnabl, 2013. "Efficient Recapitalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 1-42, February.
    2. Occhino Filippo & Pescatori Andrea, 2014. "Leverage, investment, and optimal monetary policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    4. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    5. Lamont, Owen, 1995. "Corporate-Debt Overhang and Macroeconomic Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1106-1117, December.
    6. Filippo Occhino, 2014. "Debt-Overhang Banking Crises," Working Papers (Old Series) 1425, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2014. "A macroeconomic model of liquidity crises," CIGS Working Paper Series 14-003E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    8. Occhino, Filippo & Pescatori, Andrea, 2015. "Debt overhang in a business cycle model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 58-84.
    9. Merler, S. & Pisani-Ferry, J., 2012. "Hazardous tango: sovereign-bank interdependence and financial stability in the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 201-210, April.
    10. Chiara Angeloni & Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt?," Working Papers 717, Bruegel.
    11. Samuel G. Hanson & Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2011. "A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    12. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt overhang; multiple equilibria; self-fulfilling expectations; financial fragility; systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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