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An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

Author

Listed:
  • Mrs. Lynn Aylward
  • Mr. Rupert Thorne

Abstract

While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the Fund and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of Fund-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring Fund arrears.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrs. Lynn Aylward & Mr. Rupert Thorne, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund," IMF Working Papers 1998/032, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/032
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. De Paoli, Bianca & Hoggarth, Glenn & Saporta, Victoria, 2009. "Output costs of sovereign crises: some empirical estimates," Bank of England working papers 362, Bank of England.
    2. Lynn Aylward, 1999. "Countries' Repayment Performance Vis-à-Vis the IMF: A Response to Bäcker," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-7.
    3. Ms. Chikako Oka, 2003. "Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 2003/018, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, 2016. "External debt accumulation in sub-Saharan African countries: how fast is safe?," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 93-110.
    6. A. Georgievska & L. Georgievska & A. Stojanovic & N. Todorovic, 2008. "Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1031-1051.
    7. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International bailouts, moral hazard and conditionality," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 408-432.
    8. Ms. Priyadarshani Joshi & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Implicit Transfers in IMF Lending, 1973–2003," IMF Working Papers 2005/008, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    10. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
    11. Anne Oeking & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2016. "Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?," IMF Working Papers 2016/225, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.

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