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Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

Author

Listed:
  • A. Georgievska
  • L. Georgievska
  • A. Stojanovic
  • N. Todorovic

Abstract

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) - Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Georgievska & L. Georgievska & A. Stojanovic & N. Todorovic, 2008. "Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1031-1051.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:35:y:2008:i:9:p:1031-1051
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760802193112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mrs. Lynn Aylward & Mr. Rupert Thorne, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund," IMF Working Papers 1998/032, International Monetary Fund.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings," IMF Working Papers 1998/046, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Teakdong & Koo, Bonwoo & Park, Minsoo, 2013. "Role of financial regulation and innovation in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 662-672.
    2. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2021. "Contagion of fear: Is the impact of COVID‐19 on sovereign risk really indiscriminate?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 134-154, August.
    3. Yaseen Ghulam, 2025. "Examination and predictions of risk tolerance levels and thresholds in sovereigns’ external debt defaults," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1-52, May.
    4. repec:rza:wpaper:376 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zeaiter, Hussein & El-Khalil, Raed, 2016. "Extreme bounds of sovereign defaults: Evidence from the MENA region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 391-410.
    6. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    7. Hussein Zeaiter Zeaiter, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Defaults: Evidence using Extreme bounds Analysis," Working Papers 32/2013, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    8. Ho, Sy Hoa, 2016. "Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 579-590.
    9. Ferdinand Niyimbanira & Rachel Nishimwe-Niyimbanira & Sanderson Sabie Kuyeli & Koleka Rangaza, 2015. "The Determinants of Interest Rate Spreads in South Africa: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(2), pages 101-108.
    10. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Shen, Yiran & Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei, 2024. "Stability and risk contagion in the global sovereign CDS market under Russia-Ukraine conflict," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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