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The World Price of Credit Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Doron Avramov
  • Tarun Chordia
  • Gergana Jostova
  • Alexander Philipov

Abstract

Global asset pricing models have failed to capture the cross-section of country equity returns. Emerging markets display robust positive pricing errors, and country-level characteristics play a role in pricing international equities. This paper offers a risk-based explanation for such asset pricing deviations. A world credit risk factor is significantly priced in the cross-section of country equity returns. In its presence, the positive pricing errors in emerging markets disappear and country-level characteristics no longer play a role. The risk premium for exposure to the credit risk factor is 80 basis points per month and has increased in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2012. "The World Price of Credit Risk," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 112-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:112-152.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    2. Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
    3. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    4. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 469-499, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiah, Mardy & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2023. "Trade competitiveness and the aggregate returns in global stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Jan Hanousek & Jan Novotný, 2014. "Cenové skoky během finanční nejistoty: od intuice k regulační perspektivě [Price Jumps during Financial Crisis: From Intuition to Financial Regulation]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 32-48.
    6. Memmel, Christoph & Gündüz, Yalin & Raupach, Peter, 2015. "The common drivers of default risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 232-247.
    7. Klaus Grobys & Jesper Haga, 2016. "The market price of credit risk and economic states," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1111-1134, May.
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Grobys, Klaus & Heinonen, Jari-Pekka, 2016. "Is there a credit risk anomaly in FX markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-6.
    10. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert, 2015. "The credit risk–return puzzle: Impact of credit rating announcements in Australia and Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 37-55.
    12. Gala, Vito D. & Pagliardi, Giovanni & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Global political risk and international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-102.
    13. Karnaukh, Nina, 2016. "Currency Strategies and Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers on Finance 1620, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    14. Umar, Zaghum & Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Mercik, Aleksander, 2024. "Interaction effects in the cross-section of country and industry returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    15. Li, Tangrong & Lin, Hui, 2021. "Credit risk and equity returns in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 588-613.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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