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Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk

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  • Cherian, Joseph A.
  • Perotti, Enrico

Abstract

The paper analyzes foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order to attract more capital. We characterize the evolution of confidence, investment, and asset prices over time, as well as perceived policy risk. Quite generally, perceived risk abates as current policy is maintained, leading to a gradual appreciation of asset prices and a gradual decrease in their conditional variance. The approach thus provides a measure of the evolution over time of perceived political risk from market prices. We next compute option prices under the process generated by the model's hazard rate of policy reversal plus an additional market risk component. We show that both the time series and the term structure of conditional volatility in general is downward sloping and its overall level falls steadily over time, although it may exhibit initially a hump shape in the case of very low initial reputation. Another testable implication is that in price series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from option prices will exceed actual volatility. Over time, and in the absence of a reversal, this wedge progressively disappears. This may be viewed as the volatility analogue of the 'peso premium' for assets subject to large, infrequent price drops.
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  • Cherian, Joseph A. & Perotti, Enrico, 2001. "Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 359-377, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:55:y:2001:i:2:p:359-377
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "The capital structure of multinational companies under tax competition," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(1), pages 59-81, February.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2018. "Breakthrough Renewables and the Green Paradox," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 74(1), pages 52-70, March.
    3. Pawlina, Grzegorz & Kort, Peter M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1209, July.
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rohner, Dominic, 2012. "War and natural resource exploitation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1714-1729.
    5. Nazeer, Abdul Malik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Impact of political instability on foreign direct investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 79418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2012. "Resource Wars and Confiscation Risk," OxCarre Working Papers 097, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico C, 2004. "Confidence Building on Euro Conversion: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options," CEPR Discussion Papers 4180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent C., 2002. "The explanatory power of political risk in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27.
    9. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2017. "Rapacious Oil Exploration in face of Regime Switches: Breakthrough Renewable Energy and Dynamic Resource Wars," Development Working Papers 415, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 21 Feb 2017.
    10. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2004. "The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," ZEI Working Papers B 33-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    11. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2003. "Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," HWWA Discussion Papers 234, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    12. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Institute for Financial Research.
    13. Altug, Sumru & Demers, Fanny S. & Demers, Michel, 2009. "The investment tax credit and irreversible investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 509-522, December.
    14. Jan Hendrik, Fisch, 2011. "Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries - The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 517-526, October.
    15. Bel, Germa, 2003. "Confidence building and politics in privatization: some evidence from Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 9-16, January.
    16. Brockett Patrick L. & Leng Chao-Chun & Wen Min-Ming & Yang Charles C., 2012. "Political Risk Insurance and Foreign Direct Investments," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    18. Enrico C. Perotti & Luc Laeven & Pieter van Oijen, 2000. "Confidence Building in Emerging Stock Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 366, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Jean Paul Azam & Robert Bates & Bruno Biais, 2009. "Political Predation And Economic Development," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, July.
    20. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2011. "Institutional Uncertainty, Economic Integration, and Vertical Foreign Direct Investment Decisions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 593-612, September.
    21. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico, 2011. "Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 474-491, April.
    22. Mauro Ghinamo & Paolo Panteghini & Federico Revelli, 2010. "FDI determination and corporate tax competition in a volatile world," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 532-555, October.
    23. Nordal, Kjell Bjorn, 2002. "Investing without credible inter-period regulations: a bargaining approach with application to investments in natural resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 167-182, May.
    24. Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
    25. Perotti, Enrico C & van Oijen, Pieter, 1999. "Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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