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Concession Length and Investment Timing Flexibility

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Moretto

    (University of Brescia)

  • Chiara D.Alpaos

    (University of Brescia)

  • Cesare Dosi

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

When assigning a concession contract, the regulator faces the issue of setting the concession length. Another key issue is whether or not the concessionare should be allowed to set the timing of new investments. In this paper we investigate the impact of concession length and investment timing flexibility on the “concession value”. It is generally argued that long-term contracts are privately valuable as they enable a concessionaire to increase her overall discounted returns. Moreover, the real option theory suggests that investment flexibility has an intrinsic value, as it allows concessionaires to avoid costly errors. By combining these two conventional wisdoms, one may argue that long- term contracts, which allow for investment timing flexibility, should always result in higher concession values. Our result suggests that this is not always the case. Firstly, investment flexibility does not always increase the concession value. Secondly, long-term contracts do not necessarily increase the concession value.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Moretto & Chiara D.Alpaos & Cesare Dosi, 2005. "Concession Length and Investment Timing Flexibility," Working Papers 2005.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    2. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    3. Littlechild Stephen, 2002. "Competitive Bidding for a Long-Term Electricity Distribution Contract," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, March.
    4. repec:bpj:rneart:v:1:y:2002:i:1:p:1-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    7. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    8. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. " Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-265, March.
    9. Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 1995. "Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 581-605, December.
    10. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
    11. Michele Moretto & Chiara D’Alpaos, 2004. "The Value of Flexibility in the Italian Water Service Sector: A Real Option Analysis," Working Papers 2004.140, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2006. "Concession Bidding Rules and Investment Time Flexibility," Conference Papers 6630, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.
    2. Pasquale L. Scandizzo & Marco Ventura, 2008. "A model of public and private partnership through concession contracts," ISAE Working Papers 104, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Coco, Giuseppe & De Vincenti, Claudio, 2008. "Optimal price-cap reviews," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 238-244, December.
    4. D'Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele & Valbonesi, Paola, 2006. "Time is Money: Optimal Investment Delay in Procurement (and Concession) Contracts," Conference Papers 6642, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Concession contracts; Real option theory; Investment timing flexibility; Water utilities;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

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