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Output growth and fluctuation: the role of financial openness

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  • Popov, Alexander

Abstract

I analyze output growth, volatility, and skewness as the joint outcomes of financial openness. Using an industry panel of 53 countries over 45 years, I find that financial openness increases simultaneously mean growth and the negative skewness of the growth process. The increase in output skewness appears to come from a more negatively skewed distribution of investment, TFP, and new business creation. The growth benefits of financial liberalization are augmented, and its costs associated with higher probability of rare large contractions are mitigated by deep credit markets and by strong institutions. The main result of the paper holds in aggregated data. JEL Classification: E32, F30, F36, F43, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, Alexander, 2011. "Output growth and fluctuation: the role of financial openness," Working Paper Series 1368, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111368
    Note: 861282
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1368.pdf
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2013. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 34-58.
    3. Puruweti Siyakiya, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Economic Performance: An Empirical Study of European Union 28 and Prospective Member Countries," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 3-24, December.
    4. M. Tariq Majeed & Ayesha Noreen, 2018. "Financial Development and Output Volatility: A Cross-Sectional Panel Data Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 97-141, Jan-June.
    5. Kwang-Myoung Hwang & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Capital Market Openness and Output Volatility," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 403-430, August.
    6. World Bank Group, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 18, October 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 30455, The World Bank Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development; Financial openness; growth; skewness; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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