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A rational expectations model of financial contagion

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  • Laura E. Kodres
  • Matthew Pritsker

Abstract

We develop a multiple asset rational expectations model of asset prices to study the determinants of financial market contagion, and to provide an explanation for the pattern of contagion during the Asian financial crisis. Our findings show that the pattern and severity of financial contagion depends on the size of markets' sensitivities to common macroeconomic risk factors. The amount of information asymmetry within a financial market also increases its susceptibility to contagion. We focus on contagion through the cross-market hedging of macroeconomic risks. Through this channel, idiosyncratic shocks in one market are transmitted to others. Interestingly, contagion can occur between markets that have no macroeconomic risks in common. In addition, contagion occurs in the absence of any news, and before the macroeconomic risk factors are realized. Because contagion occurs through hedging, the pattern of contagion is strongly influenced by the presence or absence of derivatives markets for unbundling and hedging the macroeconomic risks. Errors in market participants' beliefs about dynamic hedging activity influence the pattern of contagion and, in some cases, strongly magnify the size of the contagious price responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
    2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 10, pages 415-456 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    4. Chul Park, Yung & Song, Chi-Young, 2001. "Institutional Investors, Trade Linkage, Macroeconomic Similarities, and Contagion of the Thai Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-224, June.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kawai,Masahiro & Newfarmer,Richard S. & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2001. "Crisis and contagion in East Asia : nine lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2610, The World Bank.
    7. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    8. Mehrez, Gil & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2000. "Transparency, liberalization, and banking crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2286, The World Bank.
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A, 2001. "Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 312-334, May.
    10. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kaufmann, Daniel & Mehrez, Gil & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2005. "Predicting currency fluctuations and crises: Do resident firms have an informational advantage?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1012-1029, October.
    12. Gil Mehrez & Daniel Kaufmann, 2003. "Transparency, Liberalization and Financial Crises," Finance 0308008, EconWPA.
    13. Mongi Gharsellaoui, 2013. "Subprime Crisis and Financial Contagion: Evidence from Tunisia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 153-162.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Differences of Opinion, Rational Arbitrage and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 7376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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