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Why Has the Euro Been Falling?

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the determinants of the exchange rate by studying the historical episode after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Testing a modified portfolio balance model, we attribute the strength of the deutschmark in the early nineties and the puzzling decline of the euro during its virtual existence to changes in the demand for deutschmarks in eastern Europe and to variations in the demand for black money balances in Europe as a whole. We reject the view that the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the euro reflect the prosperity of the US and the weakness of the European economy on both theoretical and empirical grounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    2. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1983. "The Effects of Inflation on Real Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 968-980, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Frisch, 2003. "The euro and its consequences: What makes a currency strong?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 15-31, March.
    2. Jean-François Goux, 2010. "Une approche déterministe du taux de change euro-dollar," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 35-51.
    3. Gomez, Manuel & Melvin, Michael & Nardari, Federico, 2007. "Explaining the early years of the euro exchange rate: An episode of learning about a new central bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 505-520, April.
    4. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, February.
    5. Helmut Stix, 2002. "The Euro in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE countries) : survey evidence from five countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 3(3), pages 33-38, April.
    6. Mann, Catherine L. & Meade, Ellen E., 2002. "Home bias, transactions costs, and prospects for the Euro: A more detailed analysis," Research Notes 6, Deutsche Bank Research.
    7. Michael Melvin & Manuel Gomez, 2004. "Explaining the dollar/euro exchange rate: the role of policy uncertainty, asymmetric information, and hedging opportunities," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 72, Econometric Society.
    8. Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2007. "GDP growth and currency valuation: The case of the dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1424-1449, December.
    9. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: Reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17.
    10. P.J.G. Vlaar, 2001. "On the Strength of the US dollar: Can it be Explained by Output Growth?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 668, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Guy M Meredith, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been so Weak?," IMF Working Papers 01/155, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Bergsten, C. Fred, 2002. "The euro versus the dollar: will there be a struggle for dominance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 307-314, July.
    13. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "The Deutschmark in Eastern Europe, Black Money and the Euro: On the Size of the Effect," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 35-40, February.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 27-42, 04.
      • Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2002(CESIFOFOR), pages 27-42, 04.
    15. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "Flight from the Old Euro-Area Currencies," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(4), pages 44-47, February.
    16. Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 2004. "The European Union currencies and the US dollar: from post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1109-1136.
    17. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 10, pages 415-456 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Maria Silgoner, 2008. "Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 195-211, April.
    19. Hans Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Die D-Mark in Osteuropa, das Schwarzgeld und der Euro: Zur Größe des Effektes," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(19), pages 18-23, October.
    20. Pompeo Della Posta, 2005. "Fundamentals, International Role of Euro and 'Framing' of Expectations: What are the Determinants of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 24, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    21. Donato Masciandaro, 2005. "False and Reluctant Friends? National Money Laundering Regulation, International Compliance and Non-Cooperative Countries," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 17-30, July.
    22. Francis Breedon & Francesca Fornasari, 2001. "Wechselkurseffekte der Einführung von Euro-Bargeld," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(19), pages 24-26, October.
    23. Ding, Liang & Ma, Jun, 2013. "Portfolio reallocation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3100-3124.
    24. Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Vor der Talsohle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.

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