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Bottoming out

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Wolfgang Meister

Abstract

On 19 December 2001 at its pre-Christmas press conference, the Ifo Institute presented its economic forecast for 2002. After a weak winter semester, the German economy will gradually begin to expand during the second quarter of 2002, stimulated by the growth in the United States and by the turnaround in the inventory cycle. Real GDP for the year, however, will only increase by 0.6% in 2001 since the acceleration will come too late in the year to have a significant influence on the annual growth rate. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will pass the 4 million mark early in the year, and the annual unemployment will lie in this general neighbourhood. Price increases will be moderate in 2002, with an inflation rate of only 1.5% expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Bottoming out," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:24:p:27-42
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2001_24_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
    5. Hans Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "The Deutschmark in Eastern Europe, black money, and the euro: on the size of the effect," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(19), pages 18-23, October.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Consumer price trends after the introduction of euro cash," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(05), pages 54-56, March.
    2. Arno Städtler, 2001. "Significant gains for leasing - leasing share of investment surpasses the 20% mark," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 43-51, October.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Economy economic activity 2002: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
    4. Volker Rußig, 2002. "Construction activity in Europe: moderate expansion after 2003," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(04), pages 26-33, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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