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Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="twec12262-abs-0001"> I analyse whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting and capital mobility – Chile, Colombia and Mexico – to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks' policy rates. The results indicate that there is significant ‘policy contagion’ and that these countries tend to ‘import’ Fed policies. The degree of monetary policy independence is lower than what traditional models suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 773-787, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:38:y:2015:i:5:p:773-787
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/twec.2015.38.issue-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    2. Juliusz Jabłecki & Andrzej Raczko & Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2016. "Negative bond term premia - a new challenge for Polish conventional monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 303-315 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:53-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Davis, Scott, 2016. "Economic fundamentals and monetary policy autonomy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    6. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    7. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-140.
    8. Abouelkhair, Anass & Gahaz, Taha & Y. Tamsamani, Yasser, 2018. "Choix du régime de change et croissance économique : Une analyse empirique sur des données de panel africaines
      [Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis on African Pan
      ," MPRA Paper 84700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "Systematic Managed Floating," Working Paper Series rwp17-025, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2017. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 12093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Christian Rohe & Matthias Hartermann, 2015. "The role of external shocks for monetary policy in Colombia and Brazil: A Bayesian SVAR analysis," CQE Working Papers 4215, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    12. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    13. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    14. repec:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1370-y is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    16. Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary independence," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 213-225 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 16/108, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Luca A Ricci & Wei Shi, 2016. "Trilemma or Dilemma; Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/75, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2019. "Classifying de facto exchange rate regimes of financially open and closed economies: A statistical approach," MPRA Paper 91348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Ishak Demir & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/195, International Monetary Fund.

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