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Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations: Spending vs. Tax Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Bianchi Vimercati
  • Martin S. Eichenbaum
  • Joao Guerreiro

Abstract

This paper addresses the question: how sensitive is the power of fiscal policy at the ZLB to the assumption of rational expectations? We do so through the lens of a standard NK model in which people are dynamic-level-k thinkers. Our analysis weakens the case for using government spending to stabilize the economy when the ZLB binds. The less sophisticated people are, the smaller the government-spending multiplier is. Our analysis strengthens the case for using tax policy to stabilize output when the ZLB is binding. The power of tax policy to stabilize the economy during the ZLB period is essentially undiminished when agents do not have rational expectations. Our results are robust to whether or not Ricardian equivalence holds. Finally, we show that the way in which tax policy is communicated is critical to its effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Bianchi Vimercati & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Joao Guerreiro, 2021. "Fiscal Stimulus with Imperfect Expectations: Spending vs. Tax Policy," NBER Working Papers 29134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29134
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    Cited by:

    1. Kopiec, Paweł, 2024. "Monetary-Fiscal Forward Guidance," MPRA Paper 120563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Röttger, Joost, 2025. "Make-up strategies with incomplete markets and bounded rationality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kocharakov, Georgi & Luetticke, Ralph & Weber, Michael, 2021. "A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 16690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2022. "The electoral fiscal multiplier," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 938-945.
    6. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Pierlauro Lopez & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "A Behavioral Foundation for the Investment Wedge," Working Paper Series 2025-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Jing Cynthia Wu & Yinxi Xie, 2025. "Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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