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Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning-to-Forecast and -optimise Experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Te Bao

    (University of Groningen, the Netherlands)

  • Cars Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Tomasz Makarewicz

    (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the fundamental price in all treatments, but to a larger degree in treatments (2) and (3). Mispricing is therefore a robust finding in markets with positive expectation feedback. Some very large, recurring bubbles arise, where the price is 3 times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2015. "Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning-to-Forecast and -optimise Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-107/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments," Working Papers halshs-01263661, HAL.
    2. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2017. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. repec:zbw:ifweej:201820 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eme:rexezz:s0193-230620140000017002 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Agliari, Anna & Hommes, Cars H. & Pecora, Nicolò, 2016. "Path dependent coordination of expectations in asset pricing experiments: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics,in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    7. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2016. "A Methodological Note on Eliciting Price Forecasts in Asset Market Experiments," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-02, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    8. Hommes, C.H. & Bao, T., 2015. "When Speculators Meet Constructors: Positive and Negative Feedback in Experimental Housing Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    9. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments ," Post-Print hal-01712305, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Bubbles; Experimental Finance; Rational Expectations; Learning to Forecast; Learning to Optimize;

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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