IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pit/wpaper/504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model

Author

Listed:
  • John Duffy
  • Sean Crockett

Abstract

We implement a dynamic asset pricing experiment in the spirit of Lucas (1978) with storable assets and non-storable cash. In one treatment we impose diminishing marginal returns to cash to incentivize consumption-smoothing across periods, while in a second treatment there is no induced motive for trade. In the former case subjects smooth consumption, and assets trade at a discount relative to the risk-neutral fundamental price. This under-pricing is a departure from the `bubbles` observed in the experimental asset pricing experiments of Smith et al. (1988). In our second treatment with no induced motive for trade, assets trade at a premium relative to expected value and shareholdings are highly concentrated.

Suggested Citation

  • John Duffy & Sean Crockett, 2010. "An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model," Working Paper 504, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised May 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ewi-ssl.pitt.edu/econ/files/faculty/wp/130507_wp_DuffyJohn_draft_130507.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    2. J. E. Stiglitz, 1970. "A Consumption-Oriented Theory of the Demand for Financial Assets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 321-351.
    3. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
    4. Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Diminishing Marginal Utility of Wealth Cannot Explain Risk Aversion," Economics Working Papers E00-287, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    6. Katerina Sherstyuk & Nori Tarui & Tatsuyoshi Saijo, 2013. "Payment schemes in infinite-horizon experimental games," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 16(1), pages 125-153, March.
    7. Volodymyr Lugovskyy & Daniela Puzzello & Steven Tucker, 2009. "An Experimental Study of Bubble Formation in Asset Markets Using the Tâtonnement Pricing Mechanism," Working Papers in Economics 09/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    8. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    9. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    10. Pedro Dal Bo & Guillaume R. Frochette, 2011. "The Evolution of Cooperation in Infinitely Repeated Games: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 411-429, February.
    11. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
    12. Wheatley, Simon, 1988. "Some tests of the consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-215, September.
    13. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    15. Peter Bossaerts & Charles Plott & William R. Zame, 2007. "Prices and Portfolio Choices in Financial Markets: Theory, Econometrics, Experiments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 993-1038, July.
    16. Kenneth Matheny & Charles Noussair, 2000. "An experimental study of decisions in dynamic optimization problems," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(2), pages 389-419.
    17. Asparouhova, Elena & Bossaerts, Peter & Plott, Charles, 2003. "Excess demand and equilibration in multi-security financial markets: the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, January.
    18. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lugovskyy, Volodymyr & Puzzello, Daniela & Tucker, Steven & Williams, Arlington, 2014. "Asset-holdings caps and bubbles in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 781-797.
    2. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Biais, Bruno & Mariotti, Thomas & Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2017. "Asset pricing and risk sharing in a complete market: An experimental investigation," TSE Working Papers 17-798, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts & Nilanjan Roy & William Zame, 2016. "“Lucas” in the Laboratory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2727-2780, December.
    5. Guidon Fenig & Mariya Mileva & Luba Petersen, 2013. "Asset Trading and Monetary Policy in Production Economies," Discussion Papers dp13-08, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, revised Aug 2014.
    6. Giovanni Giusti & Janet Hua Jiang & Yiping Xu, 2014. "Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets," Staff Working Papers 14-18, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2016. "Price Dynamics and Consumption Smoothing in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 71631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Roy, Nilanjan, 2022. "Sharing idiosyncratic risk even though prices are “wrong”," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    4. Enrica Carbone & John Hey & Tibor Neugebauer, 2021. "An Experimental Comparison of Two Exchange Economies: Long-Lived Asset vs. Short-Lived Asset," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 6946-6962, November.
    5. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Raahauge, Peter, 2004. "Latent Utility Shocks in a Structural Empirical Asset Pricing Model," Working Papers 2004-7, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    6. Hirota, Shinichi & Huber, Juergen & Stöckl, Thomas & Sunder, Shyam, 2022. "Speculation, money supply and price indeterminacy in financial markets: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1275-1296.
    7. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2015. "Investment Horizons and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Nuriddin Ikromov & Abdullah Yavas, 2012. "Cash Flow Volatility, Prices and Price Volatility: An Experimental Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 203-229, January.
    9. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Enrica Carbone & John Hey & Tibor Neugebauer, 2018. "An Experimental Comparison of Two Exchange Mechanisms, An Asset Market versus a Credit Market," Discussion Papers 18/08, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    12. Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1997. "Asset Prices with Contingent Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Université Laval - Département d'économique, revised 08 Jun 1998.
    13. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118.
    15. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Baghestanian, S. & Lugovskyy, V. & Puzzello, D., 2015. "Traders’ heterogeneity and bubble-crash patterns in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 82-101.
    17. Paul Scanlon, 2008. "New Goods and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 927, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Kirchler, Michael, 2009. "Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets. An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 491-506, February.
    19. Stefan Avdjiev & Nathan Balke, 2010. "Stochastic Volatility, Long Run Risks, and Aggregate Stock Market Fluctuations," BIS Working Papers 323, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Lucas Tree Model; Experimental Economics; General Equilibrium; Intertemporal Choice; Macrofinance; Consumption Smoothing; Risk Attitudes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depghus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.