Tests of rational expectations in a stark setting
The authors test the hypothesis that subjects' forecasts in a stark experimental setting are not predictably different than the actual process generating the data. The particular process that they use is a random walk. Forty subjects predict realizations of random walks chosen to be consistent with the actual process generating the data. The authors find that they cannot predict subjects' deviations from rational expectations of the process actually generating the data for about half of the subjects. The authors cannot predict the forecast errors of about 90 percent of the subjects with information actually available to them. Coauthors are Arlington W. Williams, Raymond C. Battalio, and Timothy I. Mason. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||1989|
|Publication status:||Published in Economic Journal, May 1993, 103(418), pp. 586-601|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1989-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.