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Monetary policy as equilibrium selection

Author

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  • Gaetano Antinolfi
  • Costas Azariadis
  • James B. Bullard

Abstract

Can monetary policy guide expectations toward desirable outcomes when equilibrium and welfare are sensitive to alternative, commonly held rational beliefs? This paper studies this question in an exchange economy with endogenous debt limits in which dynamic complementarities between dated debt limits support two Pareto-ranked steady states: a suboptimal, locally stable autarkic state and a constrained optimal, locally unstable trading state. The authors identify feedback policies that reverse the stability properties of the two steady states and ensure rapid convergence to the constrained optimal state.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaetano Antinolfi & Costas Azariadis & James B. Bullard, 2007. "Monetary policy as equilibrium selection," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 331-342.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:331-342:n:v.89no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
    4. Cooper,Russell, 1999. "Coordination Games," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521578967, April.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Eusepi, Stefano, 2005. "The design of monetary and fiscal policy: A global perspective," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 40-73, July.
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Efficiency, Equilibrium, and Asset Pricing with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 775-798, July.
    7. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2007. "Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 126-143, September.
    8. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    9. Randall Wright, 2005. "Introduction to "Models of Monetary Economies II: The Next Generation"," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Oct, pages 2-9.
    10. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 865-888.
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    12. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antinolfi, Gaetano & Azariadis, Costas & Bullard, James, 2016. "The Optimal Inflation Target In An Economy With Limited Enforcement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 582-600, March.
    2. Bidian, Florin, 2016. "Robust bubbles with mild penalties for default," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 141-153.
    3. Gaetano Bloise & Pietro Reichlin & Mario Tirelli, 2013. "Fragility of Competitive Equilibrium with Risk of Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 271-295, April.
    4. Bejan, Camelia & Bidian, Florin, 2010. "Limited enforcement, bubbles and trading in incomplete markets," MPRA Paper 36819, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Feb 2012.
    5. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Commentary on "Monetary policy as equilibrium selection"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 343-348.
    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Florin Bidian & Camelia Bejan, 2015. "Martingale properties of self-enforcing debt," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(1), pages 35-57, September.
    8. Azariadis, Costas, 2014. "Credit Policy in times of Financial Distress," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 337-345.
    9. Patrick A. Pintus, 2008. "Laffer traps and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 165-174.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy ; Equilibrium (Economics);

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