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Near-Rational Exuberance

Author

Listed:
  • James Bullard
  • George Evans

Abstract

We study how the use of judgement or add-factors in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which "exuberance equilibria" exist in standard macroeconomic environments. These equilibria may display sunspot-like behavior, but without a requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is indeterminate. We suggest ways in which monetary policymakers might avoid unintended outcomes by adjusting policy to minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria

Suggested Citation

  • James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:465
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    2. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
    4. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions," Economics Working Papers 15, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    6. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, April.
    7. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    8. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L, 1999. "Financial Fragility with Rational And Irrational Exuberance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 531-560, August.
    9. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    10. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April.
    13. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44.
    15. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
    16. Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
    17. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
    18. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Skreta, Vasiliki & Veldkamp, Laura, 2009. "Ratings shopping and asset complexity: A theory of ratings inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 678-695, July.
    2. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2010. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 779-805.
    3. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Bounded memory, overparameterized forecast rules, and instability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 129-135, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    learning; judgement; indeterminacy; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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