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Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium

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  • JOHN DUFFY
  • WEI XIAO

Abstract

We explore determinacy and expectational stability (learnability) of rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in New Keynesian (NK) models that include capital. Using a consistent calibration across three different models—labor‐only, firm‐specific capital, or an economy‐wide rental market for capital, we provide a clear picture of when REE is determinate and learnable and when it is not under a variety of monetary policy rules. Our findings make a case for greater optimism concerning the use of such rules in NK models with capital. While Bullard and Mitra’s (2002, 2007) findings for the labor‐only NK model do not always extend to models with capital, we show that determinate and learnable REE can be achieved in NK models with capital if there is (i) plausible capital adjustment costs, (ii) some weight given to output in the policy rule, and/or (iii) a policy of interest rate smoothing.
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Suggested Citation

  • John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2011. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 959-992, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:5:p:959-992
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    Cited by:

    1. Sveen, Tommy, 2014. "Capital accumulation, sectoral heterogeneity and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-28.
    2. McKnight, Stephen, 2017. "Are Consumption Taxes Preferable To Income Taxes For Preventing Macroeconomic Instability?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 1023-1058, June.
    3. Araújo, Eurilton, 2016. "Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in a small-open economy with sticky wages and prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 16-32.
    4. Paul Kitney, 2016. "Financial Factors and Monetary Policy: Determinacy and Learnability of Equilibrium," CAMA Working Papers 2016-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Iglésias, Gustavo & Guimarães, Luís, 2023. "Endogenous growth and monetary policy: How do interest-rate feedback rules shape nominal and real transitional dynamics?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. McKnight, Stephen, 2018. "Investment And Forward-Looking Monetary Policy: A Wicksellian Solution To The Problem Of Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1345-1369, July.
    7. Levine, Paul & McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Swarbrick, Jonathan, 2025. "Limited asset market participation and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Raghbendra Jha & Varsha S. Kulkarni, 2012. "Inflation Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India," ASARC Working Papers 2012-11, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    11. Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2014. "Inflation illusion and the Taylor principle: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 94-110.
    12. Raghbendra Jha & Varsha S. Kulkarni, 2015. "Inflation, its volatility and the inflation-growth tradeoff in India," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 350-361, July.
    13. Singh, Aarti & Stone, Sophie & Suda, Jacek, 2015. "Monetary policy and the financial sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 82-86.
    14. Kitney, Paul, 2018. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 194-207.
    15. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    16. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. repec:een:camaaa:2012-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    19. Wolfgang J. Luhan & Johann Scharler, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Illusion and the Taylor Principle – An Experimental Study," Ruhr Economic Papers 0402, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz, 2013. "The Taylor principle in a medium-scale macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 3034-3043.

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