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New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning

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  • Martin Fukac

Abstract

We analyze the economic dynamics in a basic New Keynesian model adjusted for imperfect, heterogeneous knowledge and adaptive learning. The policy, represented by a forward-looking Taylor rule, is driven by the central bank's own internal forecasts, whereas the core economic dynamics are driven by private agents' expectations. We study the implications of disagreement between those two. We find that if there is expectations heterogeneity, monetary policy should be less active in its actions in order to be short-run stability improving, and to affect positively the speed of convergence towards the first best equilibrium in the long run. This is in contrast to the homogeneous incomplete knowledge literature, which predicts the opposite. We also find that the homogeneous expectations economy is easier to operate in for monetary policy, and that policy can be more effective than in the heterogeneous expectations economy. From the perspective of incomplete, heterogeneous knowledge and adaptive learning methodology, we can thus see the importance of good communication policy and monetary policy credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/5
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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2006_05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 201-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 101, Econometric Society.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    6. George W. Evans, 2003. "Comment on "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy" by Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-29, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 31 Mar 2003.
    7. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
    9. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
    10. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Filacek & Branislav Saxa, 2010. "Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device," Working Papers 2010/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007. "Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    . Imperfect and heterogeneous knowledge; adaptive learning; monetary policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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