IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnb/wpaper/2006-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Fukac

Abstract

We analyze the economic dynamics in a basic New Keynesian model adjusted for imperfect, heterogeneous knowledge and adaptive learning. The policy, represented by a forward-looking Taylor rule, is driven by the central bank's own internal forecasts, whereas the core economic dynamics are driven by private agents' expectations. We study the implications of disagreement between those two. We find that if there is expectations heterogeneity, monetary policy should be less active in its actions in order to be short-run stability improving, and to affect positively the speed of convergence towards the first best equilibrium in the long run. This is in contrast to the homogeneous incomplete knowledge literature, which predicts the opposite. We also find that the homogeneous expectations economy is easier to operate in for monetary policy, and that policy can be more effective than in the heterogeneous expectations economy. From the perspective of incomplete, heterogeneous knowledge and adaptive learning methodology, we can thus see the importance of good communication policy and monetary policy credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2006_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 101, Econometric Society.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
    6. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    9. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan Filacek & Branislav Saxa, 2010. "Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device," Working Papers 2010/13, Czech National Bank.
    2. Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007. "Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    2. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    3. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
    4. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Inflation targeting and liquidity traps under endogenous credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 48-62.
    5. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    6. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
    8. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Macroeconomics 0506013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Ilabaca, Francisco & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Martin Fukac, 2008. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning,and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
    13. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    16. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    17. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
    18. Agliari, Anna & Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2015. "Coexistence of equilibria in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous beliefs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 83-95.
    19. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
    20. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 80-96, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    . Imperfect and heterogeneous knowledge; adaptive learning; monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Babecky (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.