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Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device

Author

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  • Jan Filacek
  • Branislav Saxa

Abstract

Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Filacek & Branislav Saxa, 2010. "Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device," Working Papers 2010/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2010/13
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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2010_13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jensen, Henrik, 2002. " Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 399-422, September.
    2. Jiri Bohm & Petr Kral & Branislav Saxa, 2009. "Perception is Always Right: The CNB’s Monetary Policy in the Media," Working Papers 2009/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank; coordination; forecast.;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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