Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device
Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bankâ€™s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.
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- Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Henrik Jensen, "undated".
"Optimal Degrees of Tranaparency in Monetary Policymaking,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
01-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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- Jensen, Henrik, 2001. "Optimal degrees of transparency in monetary policymaking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jensen, Henrik, 2001. "Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking," CEPR Discussion Papers 2689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jiri Bohm & Petr Kral & Branislav Saxa, 2009. "Perception is Always Right: The CNBâ€™s Monetary Policy in the Media," Working Papers 2009/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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