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Coordination On Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint Linear Univariate Models

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  • Evans, George W.
  • Guesnerie, Roger

Abstract

We investigate local strong rationality (LSR) in a one step forward looking univariate model with memory one. Eductive arguments are used to determine when common knowledge (CK) that the solution is near some perfect foresight path is sufficient to trigger complete coordination on that path (i.e. the path is LSR).
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  • Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2003. "Coordination On Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint Linear Univariate Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 42-62, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:7:y:2003:i:01:p:42-62_01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, pages 632-646.
    2. Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
    3. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    4. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
    5. Marimon, R. & Spear, S. & Sunder, S., 1991. "Expectationally-Driven Market Volatility: An Experimental Study," GSIA Working Papers 1991-3, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    6. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March.
    7. Roger Guesnerie & Costas Azariadis, 1982. "Prophéties créatrices et persistance des théories," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(5), pages 787-806.
    8. Gauthier, Stephane, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 354-374.
    9. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-494, June.
    10. Herbert Dawid, 1996. "Learning of cycles and sunspot equilibria by Genetic Algorithms (*)," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, pages 361-373.
    11. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    12. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 439-480.
    13. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1254-1278.
    14. Marimon Ramon & Spear Stephen E. & Sunder Shyam, 1993. "Expectationally Driven Market Volatility: An Experimental Study," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 74-103, October.
    15. Frank Heinemann, 1997. "Rationalizable expectations and sunspot equilibria in an overlapping-generations economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, pages 257-277.
    16. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
    17. Guesnerie, Roger, 1993. "Theoretical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis in economic dynamical models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 847-864.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Dennis & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2013. "Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-611, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1809-1840.
    3. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 189-204.
    4. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "The E-Correspondence Principle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, pages 33-50.
    6. Richard Dennis & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2010. "Expectations traps and coordination failures: selecting among multiple discretionary equilibria," Working Paper Series 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Evans, George W. & Guesnerie, Roger, 2005. "Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint--linear multivariate models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 202-229.
    8. Haomiao Yu, 2014. "Rationalizability in large games," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 457-479.
    9. Yuting Bai & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," Working Papers 2013_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Jara-Moroni, Pedro, 2012. "Rationalizability in games with a continuum of players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 668-684.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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