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Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?

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  • Bennett T. McCallum

Abstract

Cochrane (2007) has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current mainstream monetary policy analysis, arguing that the standard notion --that "determinacy" of a rational expectations (RE) equilibrium suffices to imply that stable inflation behavior will be generated -- is incorrect. This is because New Keynesian (NK) models are typically consistent with the existence of RE paths with explosive inflation rates (in addition to one or more stable paths) that normally do not imply explosions in real variables relevant for transversality conditions. Consequently, the usual logic does not imply the absence of explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis. For there is a different criterion that is logically satisfactory for the purpose at hand. This is the requirement that, to be plausible, a RE solution must satisfy the property of least-squares learnability. Adoption of this criterion, which should be attractive to analysts concerned with actual monetary policy, serves to justify in principle the bulk of current mainstream analysis.

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  • Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?," NBER Working Papers 14534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14534
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2011. "Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A Role for Money after All?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 211-229, June.
    2. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1273-1307, October.
    3. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2011. "Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 247-249, September.
    4. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 5-21.
    5. Duarte, Fernando M., 2016. "How to escape a liquidity trap with interest rate rules," Staff Reports 776, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    6. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    7. Cochrane, John H., 2009. "Can learnability save new-Keynesian models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1109-1113, November.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153 Elsevier.
    9. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2015. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and rational-expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 93-105.
    11. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 362011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    12. Airaudo, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and stock price dynamics with limited asset market participation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Hiona Balfoussia & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Manthos D. Delis, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," Working Papers 138, Bank of Greece.
    14. McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Nominal GDP targeting: Policy rule or discretionary splurge?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 76-80.
    15. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999 Elsevier.
    16. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
    17. Chakraborty, Lekha & Varma, Kushagra Om, 2015. "Efficacy of New Monetary Framework and Determining Inflation in India: An Empirical Analysis of Financially Deregulated Regime," Working Papers 15/153, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2010. "Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 107-120, March.
    19. Irena Woroniecka-Leciejewicz, 2015. "Equilibrium strategies in a fiscal-monetary game. A simulation analysis," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 75-100.
    20. Duarte, Fernando M. & Zabai, Anna, 2015. "An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap," Staff Reports 745, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Determining optimal monetary speed limits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 269-271.

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    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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