The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle
This paper explores the relationship between consumer confidence, stock prices and the business cycle in the United States using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). It finds three key results. First, the addition of confidence and stock price shocks to a small SVAR has important effects on the dynamic responses of the US economy. A confidence shock of four index points changes US GNP by 0.14% (noting that it is not uncommon for confidence shocks to total 20 points in a few consecutive quarters), while a 7% change in the S&P 500 leads to a 0.5% change in GNP. Second, the influence of these two shocks on the US business cycle in the second half of the twentieth century has been important at various times. Confidence shocks accounted for 19% of the total effect of structural shocks to GNP during the early 1990s recession, while stock prices contributed 20% of the effect of structural shocks to GNP in the 2001 recession. Finally, adding confidence and/or stock prices to the benchmark SVAR model leads to a small improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance of GNP but this is not statistically significant. Nevertheless, confidence and stock prices do provide statistically significant incremental information during recessions.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 2601|
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Detelina Ivanova & Kajal Lahiri, 2001. "When should we care about consumer sentiment? Evidence from linear and Markov-switching models," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 153-169, January.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.