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The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle

Listed author(s):
  • David L. Haugh
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    This paper explores the relationship between consumer confidence, stock prices and the business cycle in the United States using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). It finds three key results. First, the addition of confidence and stock price shocks to a small SVAR has important effects on the dynamic responses of the US economy. A confidence shock of four index points changes US GNP by 0.14% (noting that it is not uncommon for confidence shocks to total 20 points in a few consecutive quarters), while a 7% change in the S&P 500 leads to a 0.5% change in GNP. Second, the influence of these two shocks on the US business cycle in the second half of the twentieth century has been important at various times. Confidence shocks accounted for 19% of the total effect of structural shocks to GNP during the early 1990s recession, while stock prices contributed 20% of the effect of structural shocks to GNP in the 2001 recession. Finally, adding confidence and/or stock prices to the benchmark SVAR model leads to a small improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance of GNP but this is not statistically significant. Nevertheless, confidence and stock prices do provide statistically significant incremental information during recessions.

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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-02/3_haugh_2005.pdf
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    Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-03.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2005
    Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-03
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    Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
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    1. Detelina Ivanova & Kajal Lahiri, 2001. "When should we care about consumer sentiment? Evidence from linear and Markov-switching models," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 153-169, January.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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