Forecasting Consumption in Real Time: The Role of Consumer Confidence Surveys
We study the role of consumer confidence surveys in forecasting personal consumption expenditure. We reexamine existing models of consumption and consumer confidence using both quarterly and monthly data in real time. Additionally, we produce forecasts of consumption expenditures with and without consumer confidence measures using a dynamic factor model and a real-time, jagged-edge data set. We establish in a robust way that consumer confidence significantly improves the accuracy of consumption forecasts. Furthermore, traditional macroeconomic theories seem to be unable to fully account for these results.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.|
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736
|Order Information:|| Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.|
Web: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/index.shtml Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005.
"Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 0633, European Central Bank.
- Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "Consumer attitudes: king for a day," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-15.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013.
"Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
- Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998.
"Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:12-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John Bailey Jones)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.