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Using Input-Output Information for Bayesian Forecasting of Industry Employment in a Regional Econometric Model

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  • Dan S. Rickman

    (Department of Economics and Legal Studies, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, rdan@okstate.edu)

Abstract

Bayesian estimation is used to incorporate regional input-output information into the employment block of a regional econometric model. The Bayesian approach used borrows both from previous work on embedding input-output information within econometric models and from Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting. The accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts produced by the alternative Bayesian models and some traditional forecast approaches are compared.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan S. Rickman, 2001. "Using Input-Output Information for Bayesian Forecasting of Industry Employment in a Regional Econometric Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 226-244, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:24:y:2001:i:2:p:226-244
    DOI: 10.1177/016001701761013132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
    2. Hafer, R. W. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1989. "The sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 399-408.
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    4. Partridge, Mark D & Rickman, Dan S, 1998. "Generalizing the Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach for Regional Interindustry Employment Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 62-72, January.
    5. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    6. Raynauld, Jacques & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1993. "Seasonal BVAR models : A search along some time domain priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 203-229.
    7. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    8. P Coomes & D Olson & D Glennon, 1991. "The Interindustry Employment Demand Variable: An Extension of the I-SAMIS Technique for Linking Input—Output and Econometric Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 23(7), pages 1063-1068, July.
    9. Peter W. J. Batey & Adam Z. Rose, 1990. "Extended Input-Output Models: Progress and Potential," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 13(1-2), pages 27-49, April.
    10. Dan S. Rickman & R. Keith Schwer, 1993. "A Systematic Comparison Of The REMI and IMPLAN Models: The Case Of Southern Nevada," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 143-162, Fall.
    11. L'Esperance, Wilford L. & King, Arthur E. & Sines, Richard H., 1977. "Conjoining an Ohio Input-Output Model with an Econometric Model of Ohio," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24.
    12. Hafer, R W & Sheehan, Richard G, 1991. "Policy Inference Using VAR Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 44-52, January.
    13. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashkan Masouman & Charles Harvie, 2017. "Measuring Economic Change in the Illawarra, New South Wales: An Integrated Framework," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(3), pages 294-308, July.
    2. repec:rre:publsh:v:40:y:2010:i:2:p:181-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rickman, Dan S. & Miller, Steven R., 2002. "An Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Incorporating Interindustry Relationships into a Regional Employment Forecasting Model," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 32(1), pages 133-147, Winter/Sp.
    4. Sergio Rey & Guy West & Mark Janikas, 2004. "Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-277.
    5. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:rre:publsh:v:35:y:2005:i:2:p:139-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tobias Kronenberg, 2009. "Construction of Regional Input-Output Tables Using Nonsurvey Methods," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 32(1), pages 40-64, January.
    8. Hermans, Raine, . "International Mega-Trends and Growth Prospects of the Finnish Bio-technology Industry - Essays on New Economic Geography, Market Structure of the Pharmaceutical Industry, Sources of Financing, Intelle," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 40, June.

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