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Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models

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  • Sergio Rey
  • Guy West
  • Mark Janikas

Abstract

This paper examines the nature of uncertainty in integrated econometric+input-output (ECIO) regional models. We focus on three sources of uncertainty: (a) econometric model parameter uncertainty; (b) econometric disturbance term uncertainty; and (c) input-output coefficient uncertainty. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations we analyse the relative importance of each component as well as the question of how their interaction may propagate through the integrated model to affect the distributions of the endogenous variables. Our results suggest that there is no simple answer to the question of which source of uncertainty is most important in an integrated model. Instead, that answer is conditioned upon the focus of the analysis and whether the industry specific or macro level variables are of central concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Rey & Guy West & Mark Janikas, 2004. "Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-277.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:16:y:2004:i:3:p:259-277
    DOI: 10.1080/0953531042000239365
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. West, Guy R, 1986. "A Stochastic Analysis of an Input-Output Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 363-374, March.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
    3. Dan S. Rickman, 2001. "Using Input-Output Information for Bayesian Forecasting of Industry Employment in a Regional Econometric Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 226-244, April.
    4. LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
    5. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
    6. Jackson, Randall W., 1989. "Probabilistic input-output analysis: Modeling directions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 87-95.
    7. Deller, Steven C. & Shields, Martin, 1998. "Economic Impact Modeling as a Tool for Community Economic Development," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 28(2).
    8. Scott, James K. & Johnson, Thomas G., 1998. "The Community Policy Analysis Network: A National Infrastructure for Community Policy Decision Support," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 28(2).
    9. R. C. Jensen, 1980. "The Concept of Accuracy in Regional Input-Output Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 139-154, August.
    10. Gerking, Shelby D, 1976. "Input-Output as a Simple Econometric Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(3), pages 274-282, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Malcolm Beynon & Max Munday, 2008. "Stochastic key sector analysis: an application to a regional input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(4), pages 863-877, December.
    2. Fernando Perobelli & Rogério Silva de Mattos & Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Marcos Paulo Novaes Silva, "undated". "An integrated econometric + input-output model for the Brazilian economy: an application to the energy sector," EcoMod2007 23900065, EcoMod.
    3. Arbex, Marcelo & Perobelli, Fernando S., 2010. "Solow meets Leontief: Economic growth and energy consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 43-53, January.
    4. Sporri, C. & Borsuk, M. & Peters, I. & Reichert, P., 2007. "The economic impacts of river rehabilitation: A regional Input-Output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 341-351, April.
    5. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    6. Marco Percoco & Geoffrey Hewings & Lanfranco Senn, 2006. "Structural change decomposition through a global sensitivity analysis of input-output models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 115-131.
    7. Beynon, Malcolm J. & Munday, Max, 2008. "Considering the effects of imprecision and uncertainty in ecological footprint estimation: An approach in a fuzzy environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 373-383, October.
    8. Caggiani, Leonardo & Ottomanelli, Michele & Dell’Orco, Mauro, 2014. "Handling uncertainty in Multi Regional Input-Output models by entropy maximization and fuzzy programming," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 159-172.

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