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Regional Economic Performance: An Integrated Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Graham Schindler
  • Philip Israilevich
  • Geoffrey Hewings

Abstract

SCHINDLER G. R., ISRAILEVICH P. R. and HEWINGS G. J. D. (1997) Regional economic performance: an integrated approach, Reg. Studies 31, 131-137. Decision makers who choose policy affecting future economic performance are often confronted with two types of information intended to aid the decision process. The first type of information, from input-output analysis, is usually presented in the form of industry multipliers aimed at measuring the economic impact of one sector relative to another and thus determining a ranking of industries. The second form of information is derived from time-series analysis and used to predict future economic performance. Here, forecasted growth rates of industrial output are compared, thus allowing another form of ranking. We propose that although this information is beneficial to the economic planner, it creates controversial and inconsistent rankings of industries. Instead, we present an integrated method of analysing economic performance which, through the use of a combined econometric input-output model, examines the interactions between industry multipliers and output growth rates over time. SCHINDLER G. R., ISRAILEVICH P. R. et HEWINGS G. J. D. (1997) Performance economique regionale: une approche integree, Reg. Studies 31, 131-137. Les decideurs qui font choix de politique concernant la performance economique future se voient souvent affronter deux sortes de renseignements destines a aider la prise de decision. D'habitude, la premiere sorte de renseignements, provenant de l'analyse input-output, est presentee sous forme de multiplicateurs industriels visant la mesure de l'impact economique d'un secteur par rapport a un autre secteur, ce qui finit par un classement des industries. La deuxieme sorte de renseignements provient d'une analyse en serie temporelle et sert a prevoir la performance economique future. Cet articleci cherche a mettre en comparaison des taux de croissance de la production industrielle prevus, ce qui permet un classement different. On laisse supposer que de tels renseignements provoquent des classements industriels controverses et consistants. Plutot, on presente une methode integree d'analyser la performance economique qui examine les interactions sur le temps entre les multiplicateurs industriels et les taux de croissance de la production a l'aide d'un modele qui reunit l'econometrie et l'analyse input-output. SCHINDLER G. R., ISRAILEVICH P. R. und HEWINGS G. J. D. (1997) Regionalwirtschaftliche Leistung: eine integrierte Auffassung, Reg. Studies 31, 131-137. Beschlu¨ssefassende, die sich fu¨r zuku¨nftige wirtschaftliche Leistungen beeinflussende Richtungen entscheiden, sehen sich oft zwei Arten von Information gegenu¨bergestellt, die ihnen beim Fassen von Beschlu¨ssen behilflich sein sollen: die erste Art der Information, die sich von Aufwand-Ertragsanalysen ableitet, wird gewo¨hnlich in Form von Industriemultiplikatoren pra¨sentiert, die darauf abzielen, die wirtschaftliche Auswirkung eines Sektors im Verha¨ltnis zu einem andern zu messen, und somit auf eine Rangliste der Industrien hinauslaufen. Die zweite Form der Information wird von Zeitserienanalysen abgeleitet, und dazu benutzt, zuku¨nftige wirtschaftliche Leistungen vorauszusagen. Dieser Aufsatz vergleicht Wachstumsraten der industriellen Leistung, und gestattet dadurch eine andere Form der Rangliste. Die Autoren sind der Meinung, dass diese Art der Information, obschon nu¨tzlich fu¨r die Wirtschaftsplanung, doch auch zu Kontroversen und widerspru¨chlichen Industrieranglisten fu¨hrt. Stattdessen stellen sie eine integrierte Methode der Analyse wirtschaftlicher Leistung vor, die dank Benutzung eines kombinierten o¨konomischen Aufwand-Ertragsmodells die gegenseitigen Beeinflussungen zwischen Industriemultiplikatoren und Ertragszuwachsraten u¨ber einen bestimmten Zeitraum hinweg untersuchen.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Schindler & Philip Israilevich & Geoffrey Hewings, 1997. "Regional Economic Performance: An Integrated Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 131-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:31:y:1997:i:2:p:131-137
    DOI: 10.1080/00343409750133251
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    Cited by:

    1. Artis Kancs, 2001. "Predicting European Enlargement Impacts: A Framework of Interregional General Equilibrium," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 31-63, September.
    2. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
    3. Katharina Hampel & Marcus Kunz & Norbert Schanne & Ruediger Wapler & Antje Weyh, 2006. "Regional Unemployment Forecasting Using Structural Component Models With Spatial Autocorrelation," ERSA conference papers ersa06p196, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2012. "Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 485-513, October.

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