IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy Inference Using VAR Models


  • Hafer, R W
  • Sheehan, Richard G


There has been relatively little systematic investigation of the sensitivity of policy inferences derived from vector autoregressive models to changes in the lag structure. The authors investigate this issue using a simple macro model consisting of output, prices, money, and interest rates. Using six different lag length selection criteria that vary the bias-efficiency tradeoff, they compare the policy inferences derived from the different estimations of the vector autoregressive model. The evidence shows that policy recommendations are quite sensitive to changes in the lag structure. Copyright 1991 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafer, R W & Sheehan, Richard G, 1991. "Policy Inference Using VAR Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 44-52, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:29:y:1991:i:1:p:44-52

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. William D. Nordhaus, 1980. "Policy Responses to the Productivity Slowdown," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 555, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Productivity Growth and R&D at the Business Level: Results from the PIMS Data Base," NBER Chapters,in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 134-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Minasian, Jora R, 1969. "Research and Development, Production Functions, and Rates of Return," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 80-85, May.
    4. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters,in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Link, Albert N, 1981. "Basic Research and Productivity Increase in Manufacturing: Additional Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1111-1112, December.
    6. Wesley M. Cohen & Richard C. Levin & David C. Mowery, 1987. "Firm Size and R&D Intensity: A Re-Examination," NBER Working Papers 2205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stern, Robert M & Baum, Christopher F & Greene, Mark N, 1979. "Evidence on Structural Change in the Demand for Aggregate U.S. Imports and Exports," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 179-192, February.
    8. Mansfield, Edwin, 1980. "Basic Research and Productivity Increase in Manufacturing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 863-873, December.
    9. Cohen, Wesley M & Levin, Richard C & Mowery, David C, 1987. "Firm Size and R&D Intensity: A Re-examination," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 543-565, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Rosser & Richard Sheehan, 1989. "A comparison of national and international aggregate supply and demand var models: The United States, Japan and the European economic community," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 252-272, June.
    2. Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1995. "A vector autoregressive model of the Saudi Arabian economy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 79-90, February.
    3. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    4. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2001. "Stock Prices and Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, Winter.
    5. Darrat, Ali F & Glascock, John L, 1993. "On the Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 55-72, July.
    6. Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis & Sarker, Rakhal, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51459, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Claude Deniau & Georges Fiori & Alexandre Mathis, 1992. "Sélection du nombre de retards dans un modèle VAR : conséquences éventuelles du choix des critères," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 61-69.
    8. Mark Wheeler, 1999. "The macroeconomic impacts of government debt: An empirical analysis of the 1980s and 1990s," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 273-284, September.
    9. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
    10. Hafer, R. W., 1992. "Inflation and price instability in China: A comment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 213-218.
    11. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 1999. "Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the Great Depression," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 215-235, May.
    12. Mark Wheeler & Susan Pozo, 1997. "Is the world economy more integrated today than a century ago?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 139-154, June.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:29:y:1991:i:1:p:44-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.