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Policy Inference Using VAR Models

Author

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  • Hafer, R W
  • Sheehan, Richard G

Abstract

There has been relatively little systematic investigation of the sensitivity of policy inferences derived from vector autoregressive models to changes in the lag structure. The authors investigate this issue using a simple macro model consisting of output, prices, money, and interest rates. Using six different lag length selection criteria that vary the bias-efficiency tradeoff, they compare the policy inferences derived from the different estimations of the vector autoregressive model. The evidence shows that policy recommendations are quite sensitive to changes in the lag structure. Copyright 1991 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafer, R W & Sheehan, Richard G, 1991. "Policy Inference Using VAR Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 44-52, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:29:y:1991:i:1:p:44-52
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Rosser & Richard Sheehan, 1989. "A comparison of national and international aggregate supply and demand var models: The United States, Japan and the European economic community," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 252-272, June.
    2. Marc C. Chopin & Ali F. Darrat, 2000. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast the Macroeconomy?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 44(1), pages 34-42, March.
    3. Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1995. "A vector autoregressive model of the Saudi Arabian economy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 79-90, February.
    4. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    5. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    6. Michael A. Conte & Ali F. Darrat, 1993. "Testing Alternative Views Of Government Budgeting," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 19-40, September.
    7. Dan S. Rickman, 2001. "Using Input-Output Information for Bayesian Forecasting of Industry Employment in a Regional Econometric Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 226-244, April.
    8. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
    9. Michelle Casario, 1996. "North American Free Trade Agreement Bilateral Trade Effects," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, January.
    10. A.C. Arize, 1997. "Foreign trade and exchange‐rate risk in the G‐7 countries: Cointegration and error‐correction models," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 95-112.
    11. Darrat, Ali F & Glascock, John L, 1993. "On the Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 55-72, July.
    12. Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis & Sarker, Rakhal, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51459, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Claude Deniau & Georges Fiori & Alexandre Mathis, 1992. "Sélection du nombre de retards dans un modèle VAR : conséquences éventuelles du choix des critères," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 61-69.
    14. Mark Wheeler, 1999. "The macroeconomic impacts of government debt: An empirical analysis of the 1980s and 1990s," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 273-284, September.
    15. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
    16. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money‐Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
    17. Hafer, R. W., 1992. "Inflation and price instability in China: A comment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 213-218.
    18. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 1999. "Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the Great Depression," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 215-235, May.
    19. Arize, A. C., 1997. "Foreign trade and exchange-rate risk in the G-7 countries: Cointegration and error-correction models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-112.
    20. Mark Wheeler & Susan Pozo, 1997. "Is the world economy more integrated today than a century ago?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 139-154, June.

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