IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedhep/y2003iqip2-21nv.27no.1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001

Author

Listed:
  • Spencer D. Krane

Abstract

During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qi:p:2-21:n:v.27no.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2003/1qeppart1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N & Krane, Spencer D, 1985. "The Information Efficiency of Econometric Model Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 128-134, February.
    2. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2012. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Financial Econometics Series fe_2012_10, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    2. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
    3. Spencer D. Krane, 2011. "Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 184-211, January.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross domestic product;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qi:p:2-21:n:v.27no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernie Flores). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.