How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real Gross Regional Product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed for. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It is also shown that the effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at the 1-year horizon and exceeds 25% at the 13- and 14-year horizon).
|Date of creation:||18 Aug 2010|
|Publication status:||Published in Published in Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 30, Issue 7, Nov. 2011, pp. 622-643|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland|
Phone: + 358 9 183 2268
Fax: + 358 9 183 2294
Web page: http://www.bofit.fi/en/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Long Gen Ying, 2003. "Understanding China’s recent growth experience: A spatial econometric perspective," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 37(4), pages 613-628, December.
- Sandra Poncet, 2005.
"A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-430, August.
- Sandra PONCET, 2002. "A Fragmented China. Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration," Working Papers 200221, CERDI.
- Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006.
"On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?,"
Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Labor Market Developments under Spatial Autocorrelation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 30(2), pages 100-119, April.
- Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
- Lawrence R Klein & Wendy Mak, 2005. "Initial Steps in High-Frequency Modeling of China," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 40(1), pages 11-14, January.
- Krister Sandberg, 2004. "Growth of GRP in Chinese Provinces. A Test for Spatial Spillovers," ERSA conference papers ersa04p596, European Regional Science Association.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2003.
"Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption,"
Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 795-811, November.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2002. "Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Xubei Luo, 2005. "Growth spillover effects and regional development patterns : the case of Chinese provinces," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3652, The World Bank.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
- Aroca, Patricio & Guo, Dong & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2006. "Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99," WIDER Working Paper Series 089, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2006. "Taking the Temperature - Forecasting GDP Growth for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20606, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Meng, Bo & Chao, Qu, 2007. "Application of the Input-Output Decomposition Technique to China's Regional Economies," IDE Discussion Papers 102, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2007. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 664, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Poncet, Sandra, 2003. "Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)