Alternative Methodology for Turning-Point Detection in Business Cycle : A Wavelet Approach
We provide a signal modality analysis to characterize and detect nonlinearity schemes in the US Industrial Production Index time series. The analysis is achieved by using the recently proposed 'delay vector variance ' (DVV) method, which examines local predictability of a signal in the phase space to detect the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series. Optimal embedding parameters used in the DVV analysis are obtained via a differential entropy based method using wavelet-based surrogates. A complex Morlet wavelet is employed to detect and characterize the US business cycle. A comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of this approach is provided. Our results coincide with the business cycles peaks and troughs dates published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
|Date of creation:||Apr 2012|
|Publication status:||Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2012.23 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2012|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00694420|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
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- Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
- Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
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