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International Evidence on the Predictability of Stock Returns

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  • Cochran, Steven J
  • DeFina, Robert H
  • Mills, Leonard O

Abstract

This article examines the predictability of stock returns using international stock market data from eighteen countries. The study finds that the ability of dividend yields to predict stock returns increases as the return horizon lengthens from one month to forty-eight months. These results add to earlier ones, based on U.S. turn horizon. The study also explores why the observed pattern of predictability arises and provides evidence supporting the reasons suggested by Fama and French. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Cochran, Steven J & DeFina, Robert H & Mills, Leonard O, 1993. "International Evidence on the Predictability of Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-180, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:28:y:1993:i:2:p:159-80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    2. Sensoy, Ahmet & Aras, Guler & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2015. "Predictability dynamics of Islamic and conventional equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 222-248.
    3. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    4. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    6. A. Sensoy & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "How much random does European Union walk? A time-varying long memory analysis," Working Papers Series 342, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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