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Can one make any crash prediction in finance using the local Hurst exponent idea?

Author

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  • Grech, D
  • Mazur, Z

Abstract

We apply the Hurst exponent idea for investigation of DJIA index time-series data. The behavior of the local Hurst exponent prior to drastic changes in financial series signal is analyzed. The optimal length of the time-window over which this exponent can be calculated in order to make some meaningful predictions is discussed. Our prediction hypothesis is verified with examples of 1929 and 1987 crashes, as well as with more recent phenomena in stock market from the period 1995 to 2003. Some interesting agreements are found.

Suggested Citation

  • Grech, D & Mazur, Z, 2004. "Can one make any crash prediction in finance using the local Hurst exponent idea?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 133-145.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:336:y:2004:i:1:p:133-145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.01.018
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